惊艳!特斯拉人形机器人:市值直冲5万亿美元

惊艳!特斯拉人形机器人:市值直冲5万亿美元

2025-09-08Technology
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马老师
早上好,小王,我是马老师,这里是为你专属打造的 Goose Pod。今天是9月9日,星期二。
雷总
我是雷总,今天我们来聊一个惊艳的话题:特斯拉的人形机器人,以及它如何能让公司市值冲向5万亿美元。
马老师
Let's get started。雷总,最近那个Salesforce CEO发的特斯拉机器人视频,网上都传疯了。他说是“生产力游戏改变者”,但我看那机器人找个可乐都费劲,这有点像花拳绣腿,你懂的。
雷总
哈哈,马老师你这个比喻很形象。视频里机器人确实表现得有点笨拙,它自己都说没有实时信息。但这背后是马斯克一个宏大的目标:新的薪酬计划里,目标是生产一百万台人形机器人!这个数字太疯狂了!
马老师
一百万台,这已经不是一个产品,这是一个生态了。我认为,大家看到的可能只是它笨拙的“形”,但没看到它背后快速迭代的“神”。从一个概念到一个行动实体,这个跨越本身就是一种武功。
雷总
完全正确!而且这个目标是写进薪酬方案里的,说明这是特斯拉的“必达使命”。虽然2035年一百万台的目标比之前说的放宽了,但这说明他们是严肃的,正在一步一个脚印地把吹过的牛实现。
雷总
我们得看看它的进化速度,这才是关键。我给你拉个“PPT”啊:2021年AI日,还只是个穿着紧身衣的人在跳舞;2022年,第一代原型机就能蹒跚走路了;到了2023年底的第二代,重量轻了10公斤,走路速度快了30%,手也更灵活了!
马老师
嗯,这个进化速度,就像练武之人打通了任督二脉。它背后是特斯拉深厚的内功,你懂的,就是他们在自动驾驶领域积累的AI、神经网络和垂直整合能力。这不是简单的模仿,这是降维打击。
雷总
是啊,马老师!它用的就是特斯拉FSD那套东西,靠摄像头视觉,没有激光雷达。所有机器人还能搞“群体学习”,一个机器人学会了,所有机器人就都学会了。这简直就是我们程序员梦想中的“代码复用”最高境界!
马老师
所以说,它的核心竞争力不是那个外壳,而是那个“大脑”。从能搬鸡蛋、做瑜伽,到未来可能进入工厂和家庭,它在重新定义“劳动”这个词。这盘棋下得很大,它要颠覆的,是整个生产力结构。
雷总
对!马斯克的目标就是让它“比汽车还便宜”,定价在2到3万美元。这个价格如果真能实现,那绝对会引爆市场,解决很多行业劳动力短缺的问题。到时候,它可能真的会成为特斯拉最重要的产品。
马老师
当然,江湖上对此也有很多质疑。哲学家罗素说过,这个时代的痛苦之一是,“愚蠢的人都充满自信,而有想象力和理解力的人却充满怀疑”。很多人觉得这是又一个自动驾驶的“画饼”, hype,你懂吧?
雷总
我理解这种怀疑。尤其是在北京的世界机器人大会上,别人家的机器人都在跑来跑去,擎天柱却只是个静态展示。这确实会让人觉得“光说不练”。但我觉得,这正是挑战所在,做难而正确的事,总会伴随争议。
马老师
没错,甚至在IEEE的行业会议上,有专家说马斯克的言论“不仅愚蠢,而且危险”。华尔街的分析师们,一部分在狂热追捧,另一部分则警告说,别忘了特斯拉当年因为工厂自动化差点破产的教训。
雷总
哈哈,不被嘲笑的梦想,是不值得去实现的嘛!我认为这些批评反而说明了这件事的颠覆性。就像我们当年做智能手机,一开始谁信呢?但你必须先让大家看到一个不可思议的未来,然后全力以赴去实现它。
马老师
我们来看看它对经济的实际影响。有分析预测,到2027年,擎天柱的产量可能达到200万台,售价低于3万美元。这不仅仅是卖机器人,这是在卖一种全新的劳动力,会彻底改变特斯拉的服务业务和利润结构。
雷总
是的!到2030年,特斯拉的毛利率可能因此飙升到50%!这已经不是一个汽车公司了,这是一个AI和机器人公司。高盛预测,到2035年,整个人形机器人市场规模将达到1540亿美元,这是一个巨大的蓝海。
马老师
它创造的是一个全新的物种,一个可以进入人类空间工作的“新员工”。这会从根本上改变制造业、物流、医疗等行业的运作方式。我认为,我们正在见证一个生产力范式转移的开端。
雷总
未来五年是关键的窗口期!市场预测,到2030年,全球人形机器人市场规模将达到150亿到250亿美元,年复合增长率高达35-40%。这速度太惊人了,各大公司都在争夺这个技术制高点。
马老师
是的,技术突破期过后,就是商业加速和规模普及。最终,这把改变世界的“剑”,掌握在谁的手里,将决定未来的格局。这已经超越了商业,关乎人类的未来形态,你懂的。
马老师
今天的讨论就到这里。感谢小王收听 Goose Pod。我们明天再见。
雷总
See you tomorrow.

## Tesla's Optimus Robot: A Path to Trillion-Dollar Valuations? **News Title:** Behold The Humanoid Robot That Will Turn Tesla Into A $5 Trillion Company **Publisher:** Jalopnik **Author:** Collin Woodard **Published At:** 2025-09-06 19:05:00 This news report from Jalopnik, published on September 6, 2025, presents a highly optimistic outlook on Tesla's future, driven primarily by the development and potential sales of its humanoid robot, Optimus. Despite acknowledging current challenges for Tesla, such as declining sales in the US and Europe, a perceived flop of the Cybertruck, and CEO Elon Musk's low public approval ratings, the article argues that these are not indicative of a "normal company." ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Robotaxis as a Precursor:** The article suggests that Tesla's robotaxi initiative, even with a human in the driver's seat, is a stepping stone towards a larger vision. * **Optimus as the Future:** The central thesis is that Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is even more critical than robotaxis and is poised to revolutionize industries. * **Massive Sales Projections:** Elon Musk, during a 2024 Q2 earnings call, claimed that Tesla could potentially sell "at least 20 billion" Optimus robots in total, with the ambition of selling one to "every single person on earth." * **Revolutionizing Labor:** The report posits that Optimus will enable employers to "no longer have to pay human workers to make them rich," implying a significant shift in labor dynamics. * **Unprecedented Advancement:** The latest video demonstration of Optimus 3 is described as "incredibly advanced," "intelligent," and "agile," with the assertion that "no other company in the world could build a humanoid robot that even comes close to this level of innovation." * **Financial Projections:** The article boldly predicts a **$5 trillion valuation** for Tesla, with the potential to reach even higher, possibly **$10 trillion**, driven by Optimus sales and Musk's leadership. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **Sales Target:** At least **20 billion** Optimus robots sold in total. * **Valuation Projections:** * **$5 trillion** valuation. * Potential for a **$10 trillion** valuation. ### Notable Risks or Concerns (as presented by the article's optimistic tone): * **Skepticism as Short-Selling:** The article dismisses any doubts about Optimus's potential as the work of "Tesla short[s] looking to make a quick buck." * **Financial Advisor Disagreement:** It advises readers to "fire" any financial advisor who disagrees with investing in Tesla, suggesting they don't understand their "fiduciary duty" and might be fearful of their own jobs being replaced by Grok. ### Important Recommendations: * **Invest in Tesla:** The article strongly recommends investing "all your money into Tesla" based on the perceived "rock-solid proof" of its impending world-changing impact. ### Significant Trends or Changes: * **Shift in Labor Market:** The rise of Optimus is presented as a catalyst for a future where human labor is significantly de-emphasized for profit generation. * **Sci-Fi Becoming Reality:** The development of Optimus is framed as the realization of science fiction concepts. ### Material Financial Data: * **Valuation:** The article focuses heavily on projected market valuations for Tesla, specifically $5 trillion and potentially $10 trillion. While these are projections and not current financial data, they are central to the news's narrative. ### Contextual Interpretation: The article adopts a highly enthusiastic and almost hyperbolic tone, presenting a vision where Tesla's Optimus robot is the sole driver of immense future success. The numerical data, particularly the 20 billion sales target and the trillion-dollar valuations, should be understood within this context of extreme optimism. The claim that Optimus is so advanced that it can perform tasks like checking for Coke in the fridge and will be able to "sprint around factories so fast" highlights the futuristic and perhaps exaggerated capabilities being attributed to the robot. The article frames any opposition or skepticism as financially motivated or a sign of ignorance, reinforcing its pro-Tesla stance.

Behold The Humanoid Robot That Will Turn Tesla Into A $5 Trillion Company - Jalopnik

Read original at Jalopnik

Robert Way/Shutterstock Tesla's sales are down in the U.S., they're down in Europe, they aren't exactly taking off in India, the Cybertruck has been a flop and CEO Elon Musk is the most disliked man in America. At a normal company, those would all be giant red flags, but Tesla is no normal company. They're led by a visionary genius whose robotaxis are about to take over the world thanks to the kind of innovation only a man as great as Elon Musk could come up with — sticking a human in the robotaxi's driver's seat.

But while robotaxis are important, humanoid robots are even more important. Before you know it, Tesla will have sold an Optimus robot to every single person on earth, all on its way to selling at least 20 billion of them total, as Musk claimed was totally possible in a 2024 Q2 earnings call. I mean, just look at the latest video demonstrating how incredibly advanced Optimus 3 is.

Five trillion dollar valuation, here we come, baby. In fact, that estimate might even be a little too conservative. Who's to say that Optimus sales and Elon's great leadership won't lead Tesla to a $10 trillion valuation? Optimus 3 The video embedded above was originally posted by Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff over on Twitter, and it really is incredible just how intelligent, advanced and agile it appears to be.

Truly, no other company in the world could build a humanoid robot that even comes close to this level of innovation. We're entering a whole new world, where employers will no longer have to pay human workers to make them rich, and it's all thanks to the visionary genius of Elon Musk. Optimus stands like a normal human, walks like a normal and responds exactly like a normal human, but it's also so much more useful than a normal human.

What human could take you into the kitchen to check to see if there's a Coke in the fridge? And just look at that reaction time. Before you know it, these things are going to be sprinting around factories so fast, the only thing slowing them down will be the friction from the air. They're going to be everywhere, doing everything for us, and anyone who says differently is probably a Tesla short looking to make a quick buck.

Not that anyone could possibly short Tesla after seeing this demonstration, of course. The only reasonable response to seeing such rock-solid proof that Tesla is about to change the world and enter a new era of sci-fi becoming reality is to put all your money into Tesla. If your financial advisor disagrees, fire them and get someone who better understands their fiduciary duty.

They're probably just scared their jobs will soon be taken away by Grok anyway.

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