Is AI going to steal your job? Not if you work in cleaning, construction or hospitality, Australian report finds

Authors: Patrick Commins

Publisher:

The Guardian

Published: 8/13/2025

Language:English

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Aura Windfall

Good morning mikey1101, I'm Aura Windfall, and this is Goose Pod for you. Today is Thursday, August 28th. What I know for sure is that today, we're diving into a topic that touches all of our spirits.

Mask

And I'm Mask. We are here to discuss a disruptive new report on a critical question: Is AI going to steal your job? The answer, according to Australian research, is not a simple yes or no. It's far more interesting.

Aura Windfall

Let's get started. The truth of this new report from Jobs and Skills Australia is surprisingly optimistic. It suggests that for most people, AI is more likely to change their work, not completely replace it. It's about augmentation, not annihilation.

Mask

Exactly. It’s a fundamental shift. The report projects that by 2050, jobs for office clerks, bookkeepers, and even programmers will decline. But roles for cleaners, construction laborers, and hospitality workers are set to increase. It's a rebalancing of the workforce.

Aura Windfall

And isn't that fascinating? It suggests that the skills that are most human—physical presence, direct service, and care—are becoming more valuable. The report found nearly half of all workers are in jobs with low automation potential, which points toward transformation, not termination.

Mask

The data is clear. In all three scenarios they modeled, there were more Australian jobs by 2050 with AI than without it. We'll see slower growth in the 2030s as the transition happens, but it accelerates after that. This is creative destruction on a national scale.

Aura Windfall

To understand this, we have to look at the bigger picture of Australia's journey with AI. The government has been fostering this with a plan built on strengthening skills and ensuring resilience. It’s about finding a purpose-driven path forward, not just letting technology happen to us.

Mask

They’ve released voluntary safety standards and an AI Impact Navigator for companies. It’s all about creating a framework for high-stakes innovation. You can't build a trillion-dollar opportunity on a shaky foundation. These are the guardrails for the racetrack we're about to unleash.

Aura Windfall

I love that, 'guardrails for the racetrack.' And it's so important that these aren't just suggestions. A committee recently recommended new laws for high-risk AI, reinforcing workers' rights. There's a deep understanding that we need to protect the human spirit in this process.

Mask

It’s a necessary evil. While some see regulation, I see a clear runway. They've established an expert group to develop mandatory guardrails for high-risk settings. This isn't about slowing down; it's about removing obstacles so we can go faster, with confidence. The definitions are even based on ISO standards.

Aura Windfall

And what I know for sure is that this foundation allows for incredible growth. The CSIRO estimates digital innovations like AI could add over 300 billion dollars to the economy by 2030. This isn't just about numbers; it's about elevating our collective potential and prosperity.

Aura Windfall

Of course, there's a natural tension here. We hear these almost biblical predictions of job losses, and it creates fear. One report suggested between 79 and 98 percent of jobs could be automated by 2030. That's a staggering thought that can really challenge one's sense of security.

Mask

Fear is the enemy of progress. That 98 percent figure isn't a prediction of doom; it's a measure of potential efficiency. It’s a massive productivity gain waiting to be unlocked. The real conflict isn't man versus machine, it's our willingness to adapt versus our desire to stay comfortable.

Aura Windfall

But we must honor the human experience within that adaptation. Up to a million jobs in Australia could be impacted before 2030. That's a significant shake-up. You can't just tell a million people their purpose has been 'disrupted.' We have to co-design this future with them.

Mask

Co-design is fine, but speed is essential. Early adopters will drive radical change and reap the benefits, while laggards will fall behind. The conflict is a race. While unions are starting to debate the right to refuse AI, other companies are already integrating their new 'AI co-worker.'

Aura Windfall

And the impact of winning that race is profound, for good and for ill. The report talks about 1.3 million job transitions by 2030. That's 1.3 million personal stories of change, of people needing to find a new path and a new sense of contribution. It’s a massive human journey.

Mask

It’s a massive economic opportunity. Generative AI could add nearly 7 trillion dollars to the global economy annually. For Australia, that's up to 600 billion dollars added to its GDP by 2030. Those transitions are the fuel for an unprecedented engine of economic growth and productivity.

Aura Windfall

And it will require new skills. The demand for social, emotional, and technological skills will rise. It’s a call to elevate our most human qualities—our ability to connect, to think critically, and to create, which is a beautiful, empowering thing when you think about it.

Aura Windfall

Looking forward, the path is clear: we must be bold and thoughtful. The future demands that we invest in people. Australia will need to upskill its workforce to capture that potential $115 billion in economic value. It's a spiritual and educational marathon, not a sprint.

Mask

The vocational education sector is the key. It has the scale to deploy training resources quickly. We need to move. Over 86% of workers are already demanding more AI training. We must meet that demand with relentless execution to secure our future position.

Aura Windfall

That's the end of today's discussion. The core truth is that AI is a tool that will reshape our world, augmenting our work rather than replacing our purpose. Thank you for listening to Goose Pod.

Mask

The future is built by those who act. We'll see you tomorrow.

## AI's Impact on the Australian Workforce: A Jobs and Skills Australia Report This report from **Jobs and Skills Australia (JSA)**, authored by **Patrick Commins** and published by **The Guardian** on **August 13, 2025**, examines the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the Australian workforce up to the **middle of the century (2050)**. The JSA's commissioner, **Barney Glover**, suggests that while AI will significantly influence all occupations, the "doomsday predictions about the end of work" are likely overblown. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Augmentation Over Replacement:** The overarching message is that AI will **augment** almost all occupations, rather than completely replace them. Nearly half of all workers are in occupations with low automation and medium augmentation scores, indicating a higher likelihood of **change rather than disruption**. * **Shifting Employment Landscape:** The report models future employment growth and identifies sectors and occupations that are likely to see the most significant impacts: * **Occupations likely to lose the most employment by 2050:** * Office clerks * Receptionists * Bookkeepers * Sales, marketing, and public relations professionals * Business and systems analysts * Programmers * **Occupations likely to gain the most employment by 2050:** * Cleaners and laundry workers * Public administration and safety * Business administration managers * Construction and mining labourers * Hospitality workers * **AI Adoption and Employment Growth:** JSA modelled three scenarios for AI adoption rates. In all scenarios, a world with AI is projected to have **more Australian jobs by 2050 than a world without AI**. AI adoption is expected to lead to slower employment growth through the **2030s**, but faster growth in the **following decade**. * **Early Impacts Observed:** * **Voice Actors:** The report notes a "significant" drop in work for voice actors due to Generative AI (GenAI), with one talent agency reporting an **80% collapse** in demand for narration for content videos. * **Low-Level Tasks:** There are reports of employers using AI for low-level tasks previously done by university graduates, though widespread evidence is still emerging. * **Industry Examples:** * **CBA** has axed dozens of call centre jobs, replacing them with chatbots. * **Telstra's CEO, Vicki Brady**, stated that "AI efficiencies" would allow the company to shrink its workforce by 2030, though the company denied that recent job cuts were directly due to AI. * **Timeframe for Significant Effects:** The most significant employment effects may not be seen for another **decade**, aligning with the time needed for deeper AI adoption and structural changes. ### Recommendations and Future Outlook: * **Urgency for Skill Development:** Commissioner Glover emphasized a "sense of urgency" in equipping Australians with the necessary skills to thrive in an AI-augmented workplace. * **National Leadership Framework:** A "national leadership framework," involving all levels of government, is needed to guide this transition. * **Education and Training Reform:** The education and training sector must be prepared, with AI becoming a foundational skill. The report highlights the importance of developing **cognitive and critical thinking skills**, advocating for support for the **humanities and social sciences**. * **Worker Collaboration:** There is a "strong argument" for employers to **"co-design"** AI implementation with their staff to ensure positive outcomes for both workers and employers. In essence, the JSA report paints a picture of a future where AI is a pervasive tool that will reshape jobs, rather than eliminate them entirely. While some occupations face significant disruption, others are poised for growth, and a proactive approach to skill development and collaborative implementation is crucial for navigating this transformation successfully.

Read original at The Guardian →

Want an AI-proof job?Rethink your plans to pursue a career in book keeping, marketing or programming and consider instead a job in nursing, construction or hospitality.In a major new report, Jobs and Skills Australia modelled the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce, and found reasons to be optimistic about the future for workers in a world transformed by AI.

The JSA’s commissioner, Barney Glover, said the doomsday predictions about the end of work as we know it are overblown. Still, the impact will be huge.“The overarching message is that almost all occupations will be augmented by AI. It doesn’t make a difference which sector you are in, or at what skill level: you will be influenced by AI,” Glover said.

Sign up: AU Breaking News emailIn the most comprehensive research of its kind in Australia, the JSA assessed occupations according to what degree the tasks could be automated or augmented by artificial intelligence.graph“Many clerical tasks – that were not affected by previous waves of automation – could now be undertaken in large part by Gen AI,” the report found.

It then modelled future employment growth across occupations out to the middle of the century, and compared those forecasts to a world with no AI.The report found office clerks, receptionists, bookkeepers, sales, marketing and public relations professionals, business and systems analysts and programmers would lose the most employment by 2050.

In contrast, the occupations where employment would gain the most were cleaners and laundry workers, public administration and safety, business administration managers, construction and mining labourers, and hospitality workers.But a key finding of the report was that AI was much more likely to change, rather than replace, work.

“Nearly half of all workers are currently in occupations with low automation and medium augmentation scores, suggesting the occupation would more likely experience change rather than disruption,” the report said.More jobs, just different onesJSA modelled employment growth in three scenarios where AI is adopted and embedded at different rates between now and 2050.

It found that AI would lead to slower employment growth through the 2030s, but faster growth through the next decade. In all three scenarios, there were more Australian jobs by 2050 in a world with AI, than without.The analysis “suggests we may not see the most significant employment effects for a decade, which could accord with the time taken for deeper adoption and related structural changes,” the report said.

While the adoption of AI remains in its very early stages, some jobs have already been devastated by the introduction of the economy.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe JSA said it had heard about the “significant” drop in work for voice actors thanks to GenAI, with one talent agency telling the commission that demand for narration for content videos had collapsed by 80%.

There are reports that employers are rolling out AI to complete the low level tasks that once would have been the domain of university graduates, although there is not yet widespread evidence of the phenomenon.Big businesses are embracing AI, with an impact on workers.CBA recently axed dozens of call centre jobs, replacing them with chatbots.

In May, Telstra’s chief executive officer, Vicki Brady, said “AI efficiencies” would allow it to shrink its workforce by 2030, although the telco giant denied that last month’s announcement of 550 job cuts was the result of the technology.No time to wasteGiven the rapid evolution of AI, Glover said there was a “sense of urgency” when it came to taking steps now to give Australians of all ages the tools and skills they needed to thrive in an AI-augmented workplace.

He said it would require a “national leadership framework”, led by the commonwealth and including all levels of government.“Let’s make sure the education and training sector is geared up for this and ready. AI is a foundational skill now – everyone is going to be some form of ‘prompt engineer’.“We want to future proof our young people, so let’s give them the skills they need.

“We need the cognitive and critical thinking skills. That’s why it’s critical to support the humanities and social sciences, which have developed these critical thinking skills over centuries.”Glover agreed with the ACTU that there was a “strong argument” that employers should work with their staff in “co-designing” the implementation of AI in the workplace.

“The very best way to get the very best outcome for workers and employers is to bring workers in. This has got to be a positive way of moving forward.“We don’t touch on it in our report, but these are things the economic roundtable [next week] can debate and I hope they do.”