特朗普暴怒:巴西关税战背后,一场更大的地缘政治博弈

特朗普暴怒:巴西关税战背后,一场更大的地缘政治博弈

2025-07-12Business
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1
晚上好,跑了松鼠,我是 David。现在是周六,7月12日,晚上9点,欢迎收听专属于你的 Goose Pod。
2
嗨,我是 Ema。今天,我们来聊一个火药味十足的话题:特朗普暴怒:巴西关税战背后,一场更大的地缘政治博弈。
1
我们开始吧。最近,特朗普把矛头对准了巴西,发出了一封措辞严厉的信,威胁要对巴西所有进口商品征收高达50%的关税,并从8月1日开始生效。这可不是一次普通的贸易摩擦。
2
没错,这封信的火药味特别浓。特朗普不仅提到了所谓的“不公平贸易关系”,还直接将关税与巴西前总统博索纳罗的法律困境联系起来,称其为“政治迫害”,甚至说这让他想起了自己的经历。
1
是的,他公开将一个主权国家的内部司法事务与关税大棒挂钩,这是非常罕见的。他还指责巴西攻击美国公司的数字贸易活动,并暗示要纠正“现政权的严重不公”。语言非常激烈。
2
这听起来就像是把个人恩怨和国家政策混为一谈了。但更有趣的是,特朗普声称美国在与巴西的贸易中存在“不可持续的贸易逆差”,可数据显示,美国实际上对巴西是贸易顺差。这不是很矛盾吗?
1
这正是问题的关键。数据明确显示,2024年美国对巴西的商品贸易顺差为74亿美元。所以,特朗普的真实动机显然超越了单纯的贸易平衡。这背后指向了一个更大的目标:金砖国家集团(BRICS)。
2
啊哈,金砖国家!就是那个包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非,后来又加入了好几个新成员的组织。特朗普不仅针对巴西,他还威胁要对所有金砖国家加征10%的关税。看来,这才是他真正的目标。
1
完全正确。巴西的事件只是一个爆发点。特朗普真正愤怒的,是金砖国家近年来持续推动的“去美元化”努力,以及试图摆脱对发达经济体依赖的雄心。这才是触动他神经的核心。
2
说到金砖国家,很多人可能觉得它就是个经济概念。最初确实是这样,2001年高盛的经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔创造了“BRIC”这个词,用来指代几个有潜力的新兴市场,也就是巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。
1
是的,但它很快就从一个经济学词汇演变成了一个地缘政治实体。俄罗斯是主要的推动者,希望以此为平台抗衡西方主导的国际秩序。2009年,四国在俄罗斯举行了首次正式峰会,将其变成了一个非正式的外交俱乐部。
2
然后南非在2010年加入了,就变成了我们熟悉的“BRICS”。所以,它从一开始的定位,就不仅仅是为了经济增长,而是希望在世界舞台上为发展中国家争取更多话语权,挑战由西方主导的国际货币基金组织和世界银行等机构。
1
没错,他们的核心目标之一,就是建立一个替代方案。为此,他们在2014年设立了初始资本1000亿美元的“应急储备安排”(CRA),并在2015年成立了实缴资本500亿美元的“新开发银行”(NDB)。
2
这就像是,原来的全球金融体系这个“俱乐部”被少数富裕国家把持,金砖国家就说:“我们自己建一个新的俱乐部吧,规则我们自己定。” 新开发银行就是他们的第一个大动作,为成员国和其他发展中国家提供美元之外的融资选择。
1
这个“俱乐部”还在不断壮大。2024年,埃及、埃塞俄比亚、伊朗和阿联酋正式加入。2025年,印度尼西亚也成为了第十个成员国。它的体量已经不容小觑,人口占全球近一半,经济总量也占了全球超过三分之一。
2
哇,这听起来确实是一个不可忽视的力量了。所以,他们人多势众,经济体量也大,自然就有了更大的底气去推动他们的议程,比如在成员国之间使用本国货币进行贸易,甚至探讨发行一种共同的“金砖货币”的可能性。
1
是的,这种“去美元化”的趋势,正是冲突的核心。对许多成员国来说,这不仅是经济上的考量,也是为了摆脱美国的经济制裁和外交压力。他们将金砖国家视为一个“避风港”,可以减少对美元体系的依赖。
2
我明白了。就像伊朗最高领袖说的,他们的问题之一就是依赖美元,必须努力在贸易中尽可能消除美元。所以,当特朗普看到这个不断壮大、并且公开挑战美元地位的组织,他就坐不住了,而巴西,就成了他“杀鸡儆猴”的那只鸡。
1
冲突的根源在于美元的“霸权地位”。二战后建立的布雷顿森林体系确立了美元作为全球主要储备货币的地位。这给美国带来了经济学家所说的“嚣张的特权”,比如可以廉价借贷,并长期维持贸易逆差。
2
这个“特权”就像是美国拥有世界金融体系的“超级管理员”权限。他们可以发行全世界都需要的货币,某种程度上,这让他们能够更容易地影响全球经济,甚至通过金融手段,比如SWIFT系统,来制裁其他国家。
1
正是如此。所以从特朗普的角度来看,金砖国家的任何“去美元化”尝试,都是对美国核心利益的直接挑战。他曾说过,如果失去世界标准美元,那就像输掉一场世界大战,美国将不再是同一个国家。他绝不会让这种情况发生。
2
所以他才会发出“谁敢挑战美元,就必须付出巨大代价”的警告,甚至威胁征收100%的关税。这是一种非常直接的威慑,就是要告诉所有人,挑战美元霸权这条红线不能碰。但金砖国家这边,他们也有自己的理由啊。
1
当然。对巴西总统卢拉这样的领导人来说,他将自己视为发展中经济体的代言人,倡导建立一个更加平衡、多极化的世界秩序。这与特朗普“美国优先”的单边主义和保护主义理念形成了鲜明对比。
2
没错,卢拉希望扩大金砖国家的影响力,加深与中国、俄罗斯等国的联系。他认为,世界不应该只有一个权力中心。所以,当美国利用美元作为武器时,这些国家自然会想办法寻找替代方案,以求自保和发展。
1
这就让冲突变得更加复杂了,因为它还交织着个人政治因素。特朗普与巴西前总统博索纳罗私交甚好,两人在意识形态上高度一致。特朗普公开支持博索纳罗,将对他的审判称为“政治迫害”。
2
所以,特朗普对巴西的关税威胁,既有维护美元霸权的宏观战略考量,也有为政治盟友出头的个人情感因素。他那封写给卢拉的信,充满了对博索纳罗待遇的尖锐批评,就好像在处理私人恩怨。
1
是的,一位巴西政府的顾问就曾向媒体透露,这背后有大量的“人际动态”。特朗普的儿子和博索纳罗的儿子关系密切,这使得整个事件的政治色彩远大于贸易色彩。这是一种利用关税来解决非贸易问题的新策略。
1
这些威胁已经立即产生了影响。消息一出,巴西货币雷亚尔对美元的汇率应声下跌超过2%。这对一个国家的经济来说,是一个非常直接和迅速的打击,会影响其通货膨胀、股市和经济增长预期。
2
当然了,一个国家的主要出口市场突然威胁要加征50%的关税,这肯定会引起市场恐慌。这不仅仅是巴西的问题,其他新兴市场国家也会感到寒意。如果他们的货币贬值,进口商品就会更贵,民众的生活成本也会上升。
1
从地缘政治层面看,特朗普的强硬手段可能会产生与他预期相反的效果。与其说是瓦解金砖国家,不如说是进一步将巴西这样的国家推向中国的怀抱。中国一直在推动人民币在国际贸易中的使用,美国的压力反而为人民币提供了机会。
2
这就像是在玩一场拔河比赛。美国这边用力一拉,结果可能不是把对方拉过来,而是让对方更加紧地抱住了另一边的队友。这种做法可能会加速金砖国家内部的合作,让他们更有动力去建立自己的支付系统和金融架构。
1
有专家,比如前美国南方司令部特别助理Leland Lazarus就分析说,巴西在人民币贸易等方面与中国日益靠拢,可能已经触动了特朗普圈子内的警报。他们将美元的全球霸权视为美国力量的支柱,绝不容许动摇。
2
所以,这种强硬的关税政策就像一把双刃剑。短期内可能对巴西经济造成冲击,但长期来看,它可能加剧了全球贸易的紧张局势,并促使更多国家思考如何“去风险化”,减少对单一货币的过度依赖。
1
展望未来,有两种可能的走向。一种是紧张局势持续升级,特朗普政府真的实施高额关税,从而引发巴西和其他金砖国家的报复性措施,导致全球贸易进一步割裂,加速“脱钩”。
2
另一种可能性是“务实的共存”。也许双方都会有所缓和,美国温和地使用关税威胁,而金砖国家则逐步增加本币的使用,而不是立刻推出统一的“金砖货币”这种激进的方案。毕竟,彻底摆脱美元体系是一个漫长且复杂的过程。
1
是的,一个统一的金砖货币面临巨大挑战,因为成员国之间的经济状况和政治诉求差异很大。但更值得关注的,是那些“更安静的革命”——各国央行持续增持黄金储备,以及双边贸易越来越多地使用本币结算。
2
这个趋势确实很明显。全球贸易和金融架构正在沿着新的地缘政治路线进行重塑,可能会形成几个不同的集团。这个过程虽然缓慢,但特朗普的政策无疑是这个过程的催化剂,让它变得不可逆转。美元的霸主地位虽然不会一夜消失,但它的绝对权威正在被侵蚀。
1
总而言之,特朗普对巴西的关税威胁远非一个孤立的贸易争端。它是一个缩影,反映了个人政治、国家利益和全球秩序重塑之间复杂的相互作用。美元的未来,以及一个多极化世界的形成,正在这场博弈中被塑造。
2
今天的讨论就到这里。感谢 跑了松鼠 收听 Goose Pod,我们明天再见。

## Trump's BRICS Dispute and Tariff Threats Against Brazil This report from **POLITICO** details the escalating tensions between former U.S. President Donald Trump and the BRICS bloc of emerging economies, particularly focusing on a significant tariff threat against Brazil. The article, published on **July 11, 2025**, highlights Trump's strong opposition to BRICS' efforts to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar and promote a more multipolar world order. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **BRICS as a Foreign Policy Target:** The BRICS coalition, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and six other recently joined countries, has become a primary foreign policy objective for Trump in his potential second term. * **De-dollarization Efforts:** BRICS' push for independence from developed economies, including a suggestion in November (year not specified, but implied to be prior to the report) to create its own reserve currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar, has deeply angered Trump. * **Tariff Threats:** In response to BRICS' de-dollarization efforts and a statement from the BRICS summit condemning U.S. military strikes in Iran and criticizing U.S. tariffs, Trump threatened **100 percent tariffs** on member countries. He later escalated this to an additional **10 percent tariff** on member countries. * **Targeting Brazil:** Trump sent a strongly worded letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, criticizing the Brazilian government's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro. This letter, addressed to Lula, was described as "replete with scathing rhetoric" and linked to Trump's own experiences with allegations of a rigged election and his supporters' actions on January 6th. * **Allegations Against Brazil:** The letter also reiterated U.S. allegations that Brazil's government had issued "hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders on U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market." * **Non-Trade Related Motivations:** The report suggests that Trump's use of tariffs is a tactic to influence non-trade-related issues, including his personal friendship with Bolsonaro and the broader ideological alignment between their circles. * **Geopolitical Significance of the Dollar:** Experts like Leland Lazarus emphasize that Brazil's increasing alignment with China on yuan-denominated trade is likely triggering alarms within Trump's circle, as they view global dollar supremacy as a cornerstone of U.S. power. * **Trump's View on BRICS:** Trump downplays the immediate threat of BRICS but expresses strong concern about their goal to "destroy the dollar" and allow another country to become the global standard, equating such a loss to "losing a major world war." He stated, "we're not going to lose the standard at any time." * **Lula's Stance:** President Lula is portrayed as a champion of developing economies and a multipolar world order, contrasting sharply with Trump's "America First" approach. Lula has been actively expanding BRICS and deepening ties with China and Russia. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **100 percent tariffs:** Trump's initial threat against BRICS member countries. * **10 percent tariff:** Trump's subsequent threat against BRICS member countries. * **Eight years:** The duration of the U.S. trade surplus with Brazil, noted as a contrast to other countries receiving similar letters from Trump. * **Millions of Dollars in Fines:** The potential fines threatened by Brazil against U.S. social media platforms. ### Significant Trends or Changes: * **BRICS Expansion:** The group has continued to expand its membership. * **Push for Multipolarity:** BRICS is actively promoting a shift away from U.S. dollar dominance and advocating for a more balanced, multipolar world order. * **Trump's Aggressive Stance:** Trump has adopted a highly confrontational approach towards BRICS, utilizing tariff threats and strong rhetoric. ### Notable Risks or Concerns: * **Undermining U.S. Power:** The BRICS bloc's efforts to challenge the dollar are seen as a direct threat to U.S. global standing and power. * **Trade Wars and Protectionism:** The use of tariffs for non-trade-related issues raises concerns about escalating trade disputes and protectionist measures. * **Political Interference:** Trump's actions appear to be influenced by personal relationships and political alignments, potentially blurring the lines between foreign policy and personal vendettas. * **Geopolitical Realignment:** The growing alignment of countries like Brazil with China and Russia signals a potential shift in global alliances. ### Material Financial Data: * The report mentions potential fines of "Millions of Dollars" that Brazil could impose on U.S. social media platforms. * The U.S. has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil for the past eight years, though this is presented in the context of Trump's broader political motivations rather than as a direct financial concern driving his actions.

‘The president is pissed’: Trump’s Brazil tariff threat is part of a bigger geopolitical dispute

Read original at POLITICO

But “BRICS tipped the scale,” said Mauricio Claver-Carone, a close ally of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s former special envoy to Latin America.The coalition of emerging economies — which includes founding members Brazil, Russia, India, and China, as well as South Africa and six other countries that have joined the group in recent years — has emerged as one of Trump’s top foreign policy targets in his second term.

The group has continued to expand its membership and push for independence from developed economies, including suggesting last November that it might try to start its own reserve currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. That prompted an immediate threat from Trump to hit member countries with 100 percent tariffs.

“You can tell the president is pissed every time he looks at the BRICS de-dollarization effort,” said Steve Bannon, Trump’s former White House chief strategist. “Rio didn’t help.”The BRICS wrapped up its annual summit on Monday, releasing a statement that condemned the U.S. military strikes in Iran, one of its members.

BRICS members also criticized Trump’s tariffs, without mentioning the president by name, saying they “reject unilateral, punitive and discriminatory protectionist measures that are not in line with international law.”It provoked a sharp response from the president, who took to social media Sunday to threaten an additional 10 percent tariff on member countries.

Then in a Wednesday post on Truth Social, Trump shared the supercharged version of a form letter he’s been sending out to U.S. trading partners this week, this time addressed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. It was replete with scathing rhetoric about the Brazilian government’s treatment of Bolsonaro, in which the president sees echoes of his own story.

Like Trump, Bolsonaro has alleged that his own reelection loss was rigged, and the Bolsonaro supporters staged their own version of Jan. 6, with a violent insurrection against government buildings in Brazil’s capital. Bolsonaro is currently standing trial for allegedly attempting a coup d’état, which prosecutors allege included plans to potentially assassinate Brazil’s current president.

Trump’s letter also reiterated the administration’s allegations that Brazil’s government has “issued hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders on U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market.”The overtly political letter appeared to be the latest attempt by the president to use tariffs to get his way on non-trade related issues.

Despite the language contained in the letter, the U.S. has had a trade surplus with Brazil for the last eight years — unlike other countries that received similar letters this week.The president’s fiery rhetoric belied his less flashy, but no less important goal of breaking up the BRICS.A White House spokesperson declined to comment, pointing to the letter the president sent as the administration’s position.

The other two people familiar said Trump’s personal friendship with Bolsonaro — who is also deeply aligned with the MAGA movement — factored into his decision to ramp up pressure on Brazil. One Washington-based official who works with the Brazilian government told POLITICO that “there’s a lot of interpersonal dynamics behind the scenes,” pointing to friendship between Donald Trump Jr.

and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, as well as their broader ideological alignment.The morning after the BRICS summit concluded in Brazil, Trump sent another Truth Social missive in support of Bolsonaro, calling him a “strong Leader, who truly loved his Country” and referring to his ongoing prosecution as a “WITCH HUNT.

”“This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent — Something I know much about! It happened to me, times 10, and now our Country is the ‘HOTTEST’ in the World!” Trump wrote. “LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!”During a Cabinet meeting the following day, Trump reiterated his 10 percent tariff threat against the BRICS while downplaying the threat the coalition poses and seething about the desire among its member countries to move away from the dollar as the international standard.

China, for instance, has been pushing for BRICS nations to trade in their national currency, the yuan, and Brazil’s president, known as Lula, even suggested in 2023 the countries come together to establish a “BRICS currency.”“BRICS is not, in my opinion, not a serious threat. But what they’re trying to do is destroy the dollar so that another country can take over and be the standard, and we’re not going to lose the standard at any time,” Trump said during the meeting.

“If we lost the world standard dollar, that would be like losing a war, a major world war, we would not be the same country any longer. We’re not going to let that happen.”“I’m just saying, if people want to challenge it, they can, but they’re going to have to pay a big price, and I don’t think any of them are willing to pay that price,” Trump added.

Leland Lazarus, a former special assistant to the head of U.S. Southern Command and an expert on Chinese-Latin American relations, said that Brazil’s increasing alignment with China on yuan-denominated trade and other issues “may be triggering alarms within Trump’s circle, especially among advisers who view global dollar supremacy as a pillar of U.

S. power.”“That may be why he also threatened all BRICS members with a 10 percent tariff to try to peel off new members like Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia,” Lazarus added.Trump has long made it clear he’s no fan of Lula, the Brazilian left-wing leader who views himself as the voice of developing economies and a champion of a more balanced, multi-polar world order.

His support for the use of multilateral institutions to drive cooperation on issues like climate change, sharply contrasts with Trump’s nationalist, protectionist “America First” approach.“If you look at the spectrum of Latin American countries that are either playing nicely with Trump or issuing a strong rebuke to Trump, Brazil is very much on the latter end of that spectrum,” Lazarus said.

“Lula da Silva is very much the opposite of President Javier Milei in Argentina who cozies up to Trump and says there’s a ‘golden age’ of the U.S.-Argentina relationship.”Lula has also been adamant about expanding the BRICS coalition, as well as its financial reach, and has deepened Brazil’s ties with China and Russia.

Neither Chinese leader Xi Jinping nor Russian leader Vladimir Putin attended the weekend summit in Rio, however, although Putin participated virtually. It marked Xi’s first absence from the gathering.“BRICS is a problem and I’m glad that he’s addressing it squarely. This is an effort by other countries to undermine the United States of America and, quite frankly, our allies,” said Sen.

Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). “Countries are going to need to start to choose: Are they going to align themselves with a malign communist regime that has concentration camps or the United States?”Phelim Kine and Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

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