How Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China

Authors: Aniruddha Dhar

Publisher:

Hindustan Times

Published: 8/13/2025

Language:English

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Aura Windfall

Good morning 老王, I'm Aura Windfall, and this is Goose Pod for you. Today is Wednesday, August 27th. What I know for sure is that today's topic will give us much to consider.

Mask

And I'm Mask. We're here to discuss how Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China. It’s a high-stakes game of economic chicken, and someone is about to swerve.

Aura Windfall

Let's get started. At the heart of this, we see a dramatic policy shift. President Trump has threatened a staggering 50% tariff on Indian goods. The stated reason is a penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil. It feels less like policy and more like a shockwave.

Mask

It's a lever of power, pure and simple. When you apply that kind of pressure, you force a reaction. And India's reaction is to pivot. They're preparing to resume direct flights to China next month, a service suspended since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash.

Aura Windfall

Exactly, it’s a powerful symbol. It suggests that shared economic challenges can build bridges over recent, painful conflicts. There's even talk of Prime Minister Modi meeting President Xi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. It speaks to a profound search for strategic autonomy.

Mask

Autonomy is a luxury. This is about survival and opportunity. With 55% of its US-bound exports threatened, India has to find new partners. China sees this, offers moral support, and eases trade on things like urea. It's a calculated, strategic embrace.

Aura Windfall

But to truly understand the weight of this embrace, we have to look at the history. The relationship between India and China isn't just a blank slate. It’s a story filled with deep wounds and moments of connection, from "Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai" in the 50s to the shattering 1962 war.

Mask

History is a series of strategic calculations. After the '62 war, relations were frozen for a quarter-century. China’s policy has always been about managing its primary rivals, the US and Russia. India was just another piece on that board, to be neutralized or counter-balanced.

Aura Windfall

But there was a thaw, a genuine effort towards peace. Rajiv Gandhi’s visit in 1988 started a period of normalization. They signed agreements, built confidence. But the spirit of that trust was broken, wasn't it? The 2020 Galwan Valley clash was a brutal, tragic turning point.

Mask

It was an inevitable friction point. Twenty Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers were killed in hand-to-hand combat. That event reset the 'new normal.' The border became the core obstacle again, moving past the era of pretending economics could solve deep-seated geopolitical rivalries.

Aura Windfall

And what I find so fascinating is how that deep, personal conflict is now being overshadowed by external pressures. It forces us to ask, can a common adversary truly heal the deepest of divisions, or is it just a temporary bandage on a festering wound?

Aura Windfall

The central conflict here is a clash of wills. On one side, you have Trump's 'America First' doctrine, using tariffs as a weapon. He called India's economy "dead" and its tariff barriers "obnoxious." There's an emotional charge to that language that goes beyond simple trade negotiation.

Mask

It's a negotiation tactic. You create a crisis to force a concession. The U.S. wants wider access to Indian agriculture and dairy markets, and it wants to punish India for its $52 billion in Russian oil imports. The 50% tariff is the sledgehammer to break down that door.

Aura Windfall

And on the other side is India’s fierce commitment to its own path, its strategic autonomy. Prime Minister Modi is resisting, and former U.S. officials like John Bolton are warning this is an enormous mistake, that it jeopardizes decades of work to pull India away from Russia and China.

Mask

Bolton sees the bigger picture. Trump’s move is a tactical blunder. He’s so focused on punishing India for the Russia deal that he’s actively pushing a key strategic partner into the arms of his primary competitor, China. You can't be tough on everyone at once. That's not strength, it's just bad math.

Aura Windfall

The impact is already rippling outwards. We're seeing a geopolitical shift in real time. These tariffs are forcing India to fundamentally reassess its role in the world. It’s not just about finding new markets; it’s about finding a new sense of place and partnership.

Mask

It’s causing a global trade scramble. Sectors in India from gems and jewelry to auto components are hit hard. This could shave up to 40 basis points off India's GDP growth. But chaos is a ladder. India could become a manufacturing alternative to China, if it plays its cards right.

Aura Windfall

What I know for sure is that these policies have a human cost. Small and medium-sized businesses are the ones who feel the pain most acutely. But it also creates an opportunity for deeper connection between emerging economies, a shared understanding born from shared pressure.

Aura Windfall

Looking to the future, this pressure is breathing new life into old ideas. There's serious talk of reviving the Russia-India-China, or RIC, trilateral format. It’s a move toward a multipolar world, a world where power is not held in just one place. It’s a search for balance.

Mask

Balance is a byproduct of power. RIC is a strategic necessity, a counterweight to Western pressure. With the recent India-China agreement to de-escalate at the border, the path is cleared. It’s a pragmatic alliance to secure their own interests in a system they feel is stacked against them.

Aura Windfall

That's the end of today's discussion. What a powerful reminder that global relationships are always in motion. Thank you for listening to Goose Pod.

Mask

See you tomorrow. The game never stops.

## Summary: Trump's Tariffs Push India Closer to China **News Title:** How Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China **Report Provider:** Hindustan Times **Author:** Aniruddha Dhar **Published:** August 13, 2025 This news report details how US President Donald Trump's threat of a **50% tariff** on Indian goods is significantly altering the geopolitical landscape, pushing India closer to BRICS nations, particularly China. This development marks a notable shift in bilateral ties between India and China, which had reached a low point in 2020 following the Galwan Valley clash. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Resumption of Direct Flights:** India and China are set to resume direct flight connections as soon as **next month** (September 2025). Airlines in India have been instructed to prepare for this on short notice. This move comes after passenger flights were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which coincided with the Galwan Valley clash. * **Potential High-Level Meeting:** The resumption of flights could be formally announced when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China for the first time in seven years to meet President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, scheduled from **August 31, 2025**. * **India's Strategic Autonomy:** Experts suggest that Trump's tariff war is prompting India to realize the need for "strategic autonomy and strategic independence." This realization is driving India to seek common ground with China, despite Washington DC's past efforts to position India as a counterbalance to Beijing. * **China's Support:** China has shown signs of a thaw in relations, with Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong offering "moral support" to India over the tariffs, quoting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's denouncement of tariffs as a "weapon to suppress other countries." * **US Concerns:** Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned that Trump's tariff measures against India, intended to pressure Russia, could backfire by pushing India closer to both Russia and China. He stated that Trump's "leniency on the Chinese, and heavy-handed tariffs on India, jeopardise decades of American efforts to bring India away from Russia and China." * **Economic Motivations:** Trump's decision to double tariffs on Indian goods to **50%** was reportedly a penalty for India's purchases of Russian oil. His critical remarks about India's economy and tariff barriers further strained relations. * **China's Trade Easing:** China has also shown a willingness to ease trade relations, having recently relaxed curbs on urea shipments to India, a move that could expand and alleviate global shortages and prices. * **Adani Group's Potential Partnership:** The Adani Group is reportedly in talks with Chinese electric vehicle major BYD Co. for a potential partnership to produce batteries in India, further expanding its clean energy initiatives. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **50% Tariff:** The proposed US tariff rate on Indian goods, a significant increase from previous levels. * **20 Indian Soldiers:** The number of Indian soldiers killed in the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. ### Significant Trends or Changes: * A notable shift in India-China relations, moving towards closer cooperation. * India's re-evaluation of its strategic alliances in response to US trade policies. * China's proactive engagement in easing trade and offering diplomatic support to India. ### Notable Risks or Concerns: * The potential for further alienation of India from the US alliance structure. * The unintended consequences of US trade policies on global geopolitical alignments. * The impact of increased India-China economic ties on regional stability.

Read original at Hindustan Times →

US President Donald Trump’s threat of a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods is pushing Prime Minister Narendra Modi closer to BRICS nations, espcially China. This marks a significant shift in bilateral ties between India and China that saw their lowest point in 2020 following the Galwan Valley clash.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Amid the India-US tariff tensions, PM Narendra Modi’s latest move is to resume direct flights with China as soon as next month, people familiar with the negotiations, who asked for anonymity to discuss private matters, told news agency Bloomberg.

Also Follow | India tariff news live updates The deal could be formally announced when Modi is expected to head to China for the first time in seven years and meet President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation held in Tianjin from August 31, the report added. India, China to resume direct flightsAirlines in India have been asked by the government to prepare flights to China at short notice.

Passenger flights between India to China were suspended after the Covid-19 pandemic, forcing travelers from the two neighbouring countries to pass through hubs like through Hong Kong or Singapore. India had suspended direct flights during the pandemic, which coincided with the Galwan Valley clash in east Ladakh that killed 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops.

What experts saidHenry Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization think tank in Beijing, told the news agency that ties between India and China are in an “up cycle", and as leaders of the Global South, “they have to really speak to each other". “Trump’s tariff war on India has made India realise that they have to maintain some kind of strategic autonomy and strategic independence,” he added.

Washington DC has long courted New Delhi as a counterbalance to Beijing in geopolitics but with Donald Trump’s trade wars, China and India are finding common ground. Xu Feihong, China’s ambassador to India, has offered Modi moral support over the tariffs. “Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,” Xu wrote last week on X over a quote from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi denouncing the use of tariffs “as a weapon to suppress other countries.

” Also Read | 'Donald Trump's tariffs could push India closer to…': Ex-US NSA John Bolton's 'enormous mistake' warning Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff measures against India, intended to hurt Russia, could end up having the opposite effect by pushing New Delhi closer to Moscow and Beijing.

"Trump's tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia but they could push India closer to Russia and to China to oppose these tariffs," John Bolton told CNN in an interview. The former NSA further cautioned, “Trump’s leniency on the Chinese, and heavy-handed tariffs on India, jeopardise decades of American efforts to bring India away from Russia and China.

” Also Read | Trump's 50% tariff on IndiaModi’s economic calculus was fundamentally altered this month when Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent as a penalty for its purchases of Russian oil. Donald Trump's remarks that India’s economy was “dead” and its tariff barriers “obnoxious” further strained relations.

China shows thaw signsChina, also a prime target in Trump’s trade wars, has shown signs it’s ready for a thaw. This month, it eased curbs on urea shipments to India — the world’s largest importer of the fertilizer. Although initial volumes are small, the trade could expand, easing global shortages and prices.

China relaxed the ban in June but had maintained restrictions on India until now. Adani Group's investmentsThe Adani Group is reportedly in talks with Chinese electric vehicle major BYD Co. for a potential partnership that could enable billionaire Gautam Adani’s conglomerate to produce batteries in India, further expanding its clean energy footprint.

(With inputs from agencies)

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