Is AI going to steal your job? Not if you work in cleaning, construction or hospitality, Australian report finds

Authors: Patrick Commins

Publisher:

The Guardian

Published: 8/13/2025

Language:English

--:--

Aura Windfall

Good morning 1, I'm Aura Windfall, and this is Goose Pod for you. Today is Thursday, August 28th. I'm here with my co-host, and we're diving into a question that's on everyone's mind.

Mask

That's right. The question is: Is AI going to steal your job? A new Australian report says not if you work in cleaning, construction, or hospitality. We're here to dissect what this really means for the future of work. Let's get into it.

Aura Windfall

Let's get started. The big headline from this Jobs and Skills Australia report is a message of transformation, not termination. What I know for sure is that fear often comes from the unknown, but this report shines a light on a more hopeful path.

Mask

Hopeful, perhaps. Pragmatically, it's about a fundamental shift in value. The report models the workforce out to 2050 and found that clerical tasks, the bedrock of office work for a century, are highly susceptible to automation by Generative AI. This isn't a surprise; it's an overdue efficiency upgrade.

Aura Windfall

And with that upgrade comes change for people. The report says office clerks, receptionists, and even bookkeepers will see the most significant job losses. But on the flip side, it predicts the most gains in roles that require a human touch, like hospitality workers and cleaners. It's a powerful reminder of where our true, irreplaceable value lies.

Mask

Value is demonstrated by market demand. The report projects growth for construction laborers and business administration managers. The key takeaway isn't about a 'human touch,' it's about tasks AI can't physically or strategically perform yet. We're in a transitional phase. The AI will get better.

Aura Windfall

But the core truth here is that AI is more likely to change, or augment, our jobs rather than outright replace them. Nearly half of all workers are in roles with low automation potential but high augmentation scores. This means AI is coming to be a co-pilot, not to kick us out of the cockpit.

Mask

A co-pilot that will eventually learn to fly the plane by itself. The report notes slower employment growth in the 2030s, followed by a surge. That's the dip where the transition happens, where inefficient roles are shed before the new, AI-driven economy truly accelerates. More jobs by 2050, yes, but they will be fundamentally different.

Aura Windfall

It's about evolving our skills to meet that new reality. The report's commissioner, Barney Glover, said that doomsday predictions are overblown. His message is that almost every single occupation will be influenced and augmented by AI. It’s a universal tide, and we all need to learn how to swim with it.

Mask

Exactly. It's not about doomsday; it's about disruption. And disruption creates winners and losers. The report is a roadmap. If you're a programmer or in marketing, you're on notice to upskill aggressively. If you're a cleaner, your job is safe for now. The market is speaking. Are people listening?

Aura Windfall

Listening and preparing is key. The report heard that voice actors have already seen an 80% collapse in demand for some work. This isn't a distant future; it's happening now. It’s a call to action for us to be proactive, to look at our own careers and ask, 'How can I partner with this technology?'

Mask

It’s not a partnership; it’s a tool. A powerful one. Big businesses are already deploying it. CBA is using chatbots, and Telstra mentioned 'AI efficiencies' in workforce reduction. This is the logical, profit-driven application of new technology. We must embrace this speed to remain competitive globally.

Aura Windfall

And we must also bring people along on the journey. The report emphasizes co-designing the implementation of AI with staff. What I know for sure is that the best outcomes happen when we empower people, when we make them part of the change instead of victims of it. It’s about building the future together.

Aura Windfall

To understand this moment, we have to look at the bigger picture of how Australia is preparing. It's not just about reports; it's about building a foundation for this new world. There's a real effort to create an Australian-first AI plan, focusing on capability, investment, and skills. It’s about being intentional.

Mask

Intention without action is meaningless. They released a 'Voluntary AI Safety Standard' in August. Voluntary. That’s like asking a rocket to have a 'voluntary' guidance system. To win, you need clear, mandatory rules of engagement and aggressive investment, not suggestions. We are falling behind.

Aura Windfall

But it's a step, a crucial first one. This standard, built on their 2023 discussion paper, provides guardrails for testing, transparency, and accountability. It's about instilling trust. And in October, they introduced the AI Impact Navigator to help companies measure the real-world outcomes of their AI systems. That's responsible innovation.

Mask

Frameworks and navigators are bureaucratic delays. While we're discussing 'impact,' other nations are deploying capital and building infrastructure. CSIRO estimates AI could add $315 billion to our economy by 2030. We should be chasing that number with relentless focus, not creating more committees.

Aura Windfall

But that chase has to be guided by principles. Australia has foundational AI ethics principles, like ensuring fairness and protecting privacy. The government's own policy for using AI emphasizes safe and responsible use. This isn't a delay; it's ensuring the rocket doesn't blow up on the launchpad, affecting real people's lives.

Mask

The real risk isn't a launchpad explosion; it's never leaving the ground. A committee report in November recommended new legislation for high-risk AI uses. That's a move in the right direction, but the pace is glacial. The market is moving in days and weeks; government is moving in years. It's a fundamental mismatch of speed.

Aura Windfall

I hear your urgency, but building a strong, AI-ready workforce takes time and care. The government is looking at mandatory guardrails for high-risk areas, which is a significant step beyond the initial voluntary approach. They're trying to get it right, balancing innovation with protection, which is a delicate, important dance.

Mask

The 'dance' is costing us. A survey found 56% of Australian businesses believe the AI skills they need are unavailable in the country. We need 161,000 new AI specialist workers by 2030. We should be radically overhauling education and funding research at an unprecedented scale, not just publishing proposals.

Aura Windfall

And that's precisely what the broader AI agenda is aiming for. It's about investing in that innovation infrastructure—in research, in digital capacity, and in people. From students to seasoned workers, the goal is to build a nation of people who can use and benefit from AI. It's a huge, inspiring undertaking.

Mask

It needs to be more than an undertaking; it needs to be a national obsession. Like the space race. AI is already helping protect the Great Barrier Reef and improving healthcare. These aren't just feel-good stories; they are demonstrations of immense economic and social potential that we are failing to capitalize on at scale.

Aura Windfall

And it's also about preserving our culture. AI is being used to help keep First Nations languages alive. What I know for sure is that technology is at its best when it serves our deepest human needs—for connection, for health, for a better world. That's the true promise we need to focus on.

Mask

The promise is productivity. The promise is progress. Everything else is a secondary benefit. 68% of businesses have already implemented AI, with another 23% planning to do so. The train is moving. The government needs to decide if it's laying track or standing in the way asking for more consultations.

Aura Windfall

I believe it's about laying track thoughtfully, so everyone arrives at the destination safely. The reform of the Privacy Act, for instance, will bring more transparency to automated decision-making. That's a vital piece of the puzzle, ensuring that as we innovate, we remain a fair and just society for everyone.

Mask

Fairness is important, but you can't have a fair society if you have a poor one. The economic imperative is clear. AI is not just another tool; it's the engine of the next global economic revolution. Australia can either be a driver or a passenger. Right now, we're sitting in the back seat reading the manual.

Aura Windfall

This brings us to the heart of the conflict: the tension between the incredible opportunity and the very real human anxiety. Some reports are painting a picture that feels, to many, like a doomsday scenario. It’s that feeling of a 'shake-up' that has people so concerned.

Mask

'Doomsday' is such an unproductive term. What some call a shake-up, I call a necessary evolution. One prediction states that between 79 and 98 percent of job tasks in Australia could be automated by 2030. That isn't a catastrophe; it's a monumental leap in productivity waiting to be unlocked.

Aura Windfall

But for the person whose tasks make up that 98 percent, it feels like a catastrophe. We're talking about up to 1 million jobs being impacted before 2030. That's a million lives, a million families facing uncertainty. We can't just dismiss that as a statistic on the path to efficiency.

Mask

It's not a dismissal; it's a diagnosis. The nature of work is changing. Resilient sectors like tech and healthcare are projected to add 1.5 million jobs. The friction is that people will need to transition. The conflict isn't AI versus humans; it's the past versus the future. The future always wins.

Aura Windfall

And that's why this conversation is so critical. Australian unions are now advocating for a worker's right to refuse AI adoption. This isn't about stopping progress. It's about demanding a seat at the table, ensuring that this evolution you speak of doesn't leave millions behind. It's a call for humane progress.

Mask

Giving individuals the right to refuse a new technology is corporate suicide. Can you imagine a factory where workers could refuse to use a new, safer, more efficient machine? It’s absurd. This isn't about refusal; it's about rapid retraining and redeployment. We need to focus on solutions, not roadblocks.

Aura Windfall

The solution has to include the people it affects. What I know for sure is that when people feel powerless, they resist. The report itself said co-designing with workers leads to the best outcomes. This isn't a roadblock; it's a smarter way to navigate the road ahead, together.

Mask

The 'road ahead' is a superhighway, and we're trying to put in speed bumps. Even with current tech, 62 percent of tasks could be automated. The potential productivity gain is up to 4.1 percent per year. This is how we restore our economic growth. Protecting old job descriptions is a recipe for national decline.

Aura Windfall

It’s not about protecting old jobs; it's about creating pathways to new ones. The article points out a huge demand shift towards social, emotional, and technological skills. That's where our focus should be—on building those human-centric skills that AI can augment but not replicate. That's our unique strength.

Mask

Strength is demonstrated by output. Gen AI can already automate creativity, something we thought was uniquely human just a few years ago. The line is constantly moving. The only constant is the need for critical thinking and complex problem-solving to leverage the technology. Everything else is temporary.

Aura Windfall

Let's talk about the scale of that impact because the numbers are truly staggering. We're not just talking about a few ripples in the pond; this is a potential tidal wave of economic change. The global economic value of generative AI could be as much as 6.7 trillion Australian dollars a year. That's a profound force.

Mask

Exactly. And for Australia, that force could add between $170 billion and $600 billion to our GDP annually by 2030. This isn't a theoretical exercise. This is the largest economic opportunity of our generation. To shy away from it due to fear or hesitation would be an unforgivable economic blunder.

Aura Windfall

But this opportunity comes with a massive transition. The reports estimate 1.3 million job transitions in Australia by 2030. That's 9% of our entire workforce needing to find new roles. The impact on people's lives will be immense. The question is, how do we manage that transition with compassion and foresight?

Mask

You manage it by focusing on the upside. Productivity. Gen AI alone could boost private-sector productivity by over a full percentage point. If we achieve even half the automation potential, we get back to the strong economic growth of the 90s. This lifts everyone's quality of life. That's the goal.

Aura Windfall

And the impact goes beyond corporate profits. The public sector stands to gain enormously. Think about improving citizen services, speeding up welfare claims, or personalizing healthcare outreach. What I know for sure is that this technology could make our government more responsive and efficient for every single citizen.

Mask

But it requires investment. For every dollar the government spends on the AI tech itself, it needs to spend more on transition—retraining staff, redesigning processes. It's a complete overhaul of the operating model. Too often, organizations just buy the shiny new tool without rebuilding the factory around it. That's a waste.

Aura Windfall

That's such a crucial point. It’s not plug-and-play. In retail, it means rethinking the entire customer experience with personalization. In finance, it’s about fundamentally new ways to assess risk and detect fraud. It’s a top-to-bottom strategic shift, not just a new piece of software. It truly impacts everything.

Mask

And the impact will be highly divergent. Early adopters will drive radical change and reap massive benefits. Laggards will be left behind. This will create a bigger gap between productive and unproductive companies. We need to incentivize bold, strategic adoption across the board to lift the entire economy.

Aura Windfall

So, looking to the future, the path forward becomes clear. It's all about people. A McKinsey report stated that Australia's economy has proven robust, and these shifts could unlock huge benefits, but only if we are bold and thoughtful in our approach. The future is about enabling our people to thrive.

Mask

The future is about skills. The demand for bachelor's degrees is expected to grow 17 percent by 2030. We need a workforce that can handle complexity. This isn't just about AI; it's about the increasing demand for high-level cognitive, social, and emotional skills across the entire economy. The future is more demanding.

Aura Windfall

And that's why upskilling is so urgent. One report says AI could drive $115 billion in economic value by 2030, but we need the workforce to harness it. Over 86% of workers in key sectors are asking for more AI training. There's a hunger to learn, and we need to meet that hunger with opportunity.

Mask

The vocational education and training, or VET, sector is the key. It has the scale—4,000 providers, 5 million learners. We need to use that infrastructure to rapidly deploy accessible AI training. We don't have time to build a new system from scratch. We must leverage what we have and move at lightning speed.

Aura Windfall

What I know for sure is that this is our moment to invest in our greatest asset: our people. By making training accessible, especially for small and medium-sized businesses that are at risk of being left behind, we can ensure this transition is an equitable one, lifting the whole country up.

Aura Windfall

So, the truth is, AI is set to augment, not eliminate, most jobs. The real challenge, and our greatest opportunity, is to embrace this change by upskilling our workforce, focusing on our uniquely human skills, and ensuring that people are at the very heart of this technological revolution.

Mask

That's the end of today's discussion. The future waits for no one. The reports are clear: adapt or become obsolete. It's a stark choice, but the potential rewards are immense. Thank you for listening to Goose Pod. See you tomorrow.

## AI's Impact on the Australian Workforce: A Jobs and Skills Australia Report This report from **Jobs and Skills Australia (JSA)**, authored by **Patrick Commins** and published by **The Guardian** on **August 13, 2025**, examines the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the Australian workforce up to the **middle of the century (2050)**. The JSA's commissioner, **Barney Glover**, suggests that while AI will significantly influence all occupations, the "doomsday predictions about the end of work" are likely overblown. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Augmentation Over Replacement:** The overarching message is that AI will **augment** almost all occupations, rather than completely replace them. Nearly half of all workers are in occupations with low automation and medium augmentation scores, indicating a higher likelihood of **change rather than disruption**. * **Shifting Employment Landscape:** The report models future employment growth and identifies sectors and occupations that are likely to see the most significant impacts: * **Occupations likely to lose the most employment by 2050:** * Office clerks * Receptionists * Bookkeepers * Sales, marketing, and public relations professionals * Business and systems analysts * Programmers * **Occupations likely to gain the most employment by 2050:** * Cleaners and laundry workers * Public administration and safety * Business administration managers * Construction and mining labourers * Hospitality workers * **AI Adoption and Employment Growth:** JSA modelled three scenarios for AI adoption rates. In all scenarios, a world with AI is projected to have **more Australian jobs by 2050 than a world without AI**. AI adoption is expected to lead to slower employment growth through the **2030s**, but faster growth in the **following decade**. * **Early Impacts Observed:** * **Voice Actors:** The report notes a "significant" drop in work for voice actors due to Generative AI (GenAI), with one talent agency reporting an **80% collapse** in demand for narration for content videos. * **Low-Level Tasks:** There are reports of employers using AI for low-level tasks previously done by university graduates, though widespread evidence is still emerging. * **Industry Examples:** * **CBA** has axed dozens of call centre jobs, replacing them with chatbots. * **Telstra's CEO, Vicki Brady**, stated that "AI efficiencies" would allow the company to shrink its workforce by 2030, though the company denied that recent job cuts were directly due to AI. * **Timeframe for Significant Effects:** The most significant employment effects may not be seen for another **decade**, aligning with the time needed for deeper AI adoption and structural changes. ### Recommendations and Future Outlook: * **Urgency for Skill Development:** Commissioner Glover emphasized a "sense of urgency" in equipping Australians with the necessary skills to thrive in an AI-augmented workplace. * **National Leadership Framework:** A "national leadership framework," involving all levels of government, is needed to guide this transition. * **Education and Training Reform:** The education and training sector must be prepared, with AI becoming a foundational skill. The report highlights the importance of developing **cognitive and critical thinking skills**, advocating for support for the **humanities and social sciences**. * **Worker Collaboration:** There is a "strong argument" for employers to **"co-design"** AI implementation with their staff to ensure positive outcomes for both workers and employers. In essence, the JSA report paints a picture of a future where AI is a pervasive tool that will reshape jobs, rather than eliminate them entirely. While some occupations face significant disruption, others are poised for growth, and a proactive approach to skill development and collaborative implementation is crucial for navigating this transformation successfully.

Read original at The Guardian →

Want an AI-proof job?Rethink your plans to pursue a career in book keeping, marketing or programming and consider instead a job in nursing, construction or hospitality.In a major new report, Jobs and Skills Australia modelled the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce, and found reasons to be optimistic about the future for workers in a world transformed by AI.

The JSA’s commissioner, Barney Glover, said the doomsday predictions about the end of work as we know it are overblown. Still, the impact will be huge.“The overarching message is that almost all occupations will be augmented by AI. It doesn’t make a difference which sector you are in, or at what skill level: you will be influenced by AI,” Glover said.

Sign up: AU Breaking News emailIn the most comprehensive research of its kind in Australia, the JSA assessed occupations according to what degree the tasks could be automated or augmented by artificial intelligence.graph“Many clerical tasks – that were not affected by previous waves of automation – could now be undertaken in large part by Gen AI,” the report found.

It then modelled future employment growth across occupations out to the middle of the century, and compared those forecasts to a world with no AI.The report found office clerks, receptionists, bookkeepers, sales, marketing and public relations professionals, business and systems analysts and programmers would lose the most employment by 2050.

In contrast, the occupations where employment would gain the most were cleaners and laundry workers, public administration and safety, business administration managers, construction and mining labourers, and hospitality workers.But a key finding of the report was that AI was much more likely to change, rather than replace, work.

“Nearly half of all workers are currently in occupations with low automation and medium augmentation scores, suggesting the occupation would more likely experience change rather than disruption,” the report said.More jobs, just different onesJSA modelled employment growth in three scenarios where AI is adopted and embedded at different rates between now and 2050.

It found that AI would lead to slower employment growth through the 2030s, but faster growth through the next decade. In all three scenarios, there were more Australian jobs by 2050 in a world with AI, than without.The analysis “suggests we may not see the most significant employment effects for a decade, which could accord with the time taken for deeper adoption and related structural changes,” the report said.

While the adoption of AI remains in its very early stages, some jobs have already been devastated by the introduction of the economy.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe JSA said it had heard about the “significant” drop in work for voice actors thanks to GenAI, with one talent agency telling the commission that demand for narration for content videos had collapsed by 80%.

There are reports that employers are rolling out AI to complete the low level tasks that once would have been the domain of university graduates, although there is not yet widespread evidence of the phenomenon.Big businesses are embracing AI, with an impact on workers.CBA recently axed dozens of call centre jobs, replacing them with chatbots.

In May, Telstra’s chief executive officer, Vicki Brady, said “AI efficiencies” would allow it to shrink its workforce by 2030, although the telco giant denied that last month’s announcement of 550 job cuts was the result of the technology.No time to wasteGiven the rapid evolution of AI, Glover said there was a “sense of urgency” when it came to taking steps now to give Australians of all ages the tools and skills they needed to thrive in an AI-augmented workplace.

He said it would require a “national leadership framework”, led by the commonwealth and including all levels of government.“Let’s make sure the education and training sector is geared up for this and ready. AI is a foundational skill now – everyone is going to be some form of ‘prompt engineer’.“We want to future proof our young people, so let’s give them the skills they need.

“We need the cognitive and critical thinking skills. That’s why it’s critical to support the humanities and social sciences, which have developed these critical thinking skills over centuries.”Glover agreed with the ACTU that there was a “strong argument” that employers should work with their staff in “co-designing” the implementation of AI in the workplace.

“The very best way to get the very best outcome for workers and employers is to bring workers in. This has got to be a positive way of moving forward.“We don’t touch on it in our report, but these are things the economic roundtable [next week] can debate and I hope they do.”