华盛顿步履维艰的经济再受政府停摆打击

华盛顿步履维艰的经济再受政府停摆打击

2025-11-11Business
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雷总
早上好 hanjf12,我是雷总,欢迎收听专为您打造的 Goose Pod。今天是11月12日,星期三,早上6点。
董小姐
我是董小姐。今天,我们来聊一个沉重但重要的话题:华盛顿步履维艰的经济,如何因为政府停摆而雪上加霜。
雷总
没错。你看,华盛顿现在的情况,用我们程序员的话说,就是系统遇到了一个接一个的严重bug。核心问题是,政府停摆导致大批联邦雇员要么放无薪假,要么白干活没工资。这直接冲击了首都地区的食品保障体系。
董小姐
何止是冲击!简直是重创!我看到的数据是,首都地区食品银行的需求量激增了近20%,这意味着他们要比预算多提供整整800万份餐食。企业管理最怕的就是这种突发的、失控的成本暴涨,这说明很多家庭已经到了揭不开锅的地步。
雷总
董小姐说得对,这不是个小数字。华盛顿特殊就特殊在,全国有大约20%的联邦工作人员都集中在这里,差不多15万联邦雇员都安家在大华府地区。现在全国范围内,有67万联邦雇员被强制休假,还有73万人在无薪工作。这对任何一个地区的经济来说,都是灾难性的。
董小姐
对,没有现金流,一切都是空谈!员工没工资,家庭就没消费,企业就没收入。这是一个恶性循环。食品银行的负责人也说了,华盛顿今年特别艰难,就是因为坏事一件接一件地来。先是裁员,又是削减食品补助,现在再来个政府停摆,这不是要把人往绝路上逼吗?
雷总
而且,在停摆之前,华盛顿的经济状况已经亮起了红灯。9月份的失业率就达到了6%,远高于全国4.3%的平均水平,连续好几个月都是全国最高。现在停摆带来的冲击,还没有完全反映在数据里,真实情况只会更糟。
董小姐
所以说,根基不稳,再遇到风浪,就很容易翻船。这不仅仅是经济问题,更是严重的社会问题。当一个国家首都的居民,需要靠食品银行才能度日时,这本身就是一个巨大的警报。我们必须深入看看,这背后到底发生了什么。
雷总
要理解这次事件的严重性,我们需要一点历史背景。其实美国政府停摆,并不是第一次发生。但这一次,到11月5号,已经持续了36天,打破了2018到2019年35天的记录,成了美国历史上最长的一次。这就好比服务器宕机,短时间重启还能恢复,时间长了,数据就可能永久丢失了。
董小姐
没错,这不是演习,是实实在在的危机。每一次停摆,都像是在给经济放血。国会预算办公室估算过,仅仅几周的停摆,就可能造成70到140亿美元的永久性经济损失。这个损失,不是说政府开门了就能补回来的,是真正的消失了。
雷总
对,这个“永久性损失”主要来自被强制休假的员工所减少的生产力。你想想,几十万工程师、科学家、管理人员,他们的智慧和劳动在那段时间里被闲置了,这本身就是巨大的浪费。而且,这还只是保守估计,很多间接影响是很难量化的。
董小姐
当然!这还只是冰山一角。停摆真正可怕的地方在于它对民生的全面打击。比如,全国有4200万依赖“补充营养援助计划”,也就是我们常说的食品券。11月1号开始,这个计划的资金就断了。还有大约140个“启智计划”项目,那是为低收入家庭儿童提供早期教育的,也因为没钱而关闭。
雷总
是的,公共卫生也受到了威胁。疾控中心暂停了对流感、新冠等传染病的监控数据分析,这让公共卫生官员们像是蒙上了眼睛在打仗。甚至连空中交通安全都受到了影响,有个机场的空中交通管制塔甚至一度因为缺人而关闭。这太疯狂了。
董小姐
所以说,这不是简单的政府部门关门,而是整个社会安全网被撕开了一个大口子。企业最讲究风险控制,现在国家层面的风险都失控了。美国林务局甚至暂停了所有计划性的“规定燃烧”,这可是预防未来毁灭性森林大火的关键措施。这简直是在为未来的灾难埋下伏笔。
雷总
是的,这次停摆和以往不同,它发生在一个更脆弱的时刻。联邦的疫情援助资金刚刚用完,很多州和地方政府本就捉襟见肘,联邦政府还在搞“瘦身”,削减人手。这一系列组合拳下来,导致这次停摆的破坏力被成倍放大了。
董小姐
说到底,这就是一场管理上的灾难。一个国家,尤其是世界头号经济体,用这种方式来处理内部纷争,让整个社会付出代价,这是极其不负责任的。民众的信任,就是这样被一点点消耗掉的。
雷总
董小姐刚才提到了内部纷争,这正是问题的核心。这次停摆的背后,是激烈的政治对抗。你看,接近4200万人的食品援助岌岌可危,这本来是天大的民生问题,结果却成了两党互相指责、甩锅的政治皮球。
董小姐
这就是我最不能理解的地方。企业里,市场就是战场,你死我活。但在国家管理上,怎么能拿老百姓的饭碗当武器呢?共和党和民主党在国会里吵得不可开交,为了一份农业支出法案,僵持了几个星期,结果就是谁也别想拿到钱吃饭。这算什么事?
雷总
而且,这次关于食品券(SNAP)的争议尤其突出。特朗普政府之前通过的一项法案,扩大了领取食品券的工作要求,还增加了各州的成本负担,这实际上是想从根本上削减这个项目的规模,预计总资金会减少近2000亿美元。所以停摆一来,他们就有了暂停整个项目的理由。
董小姐
这不就是典型的“项庄舞剑,意在沛公”吗?借着停摆的名义,去推动自己原本就想实施的政策。但司法系统还没完全糊涂。我看到有法官站出来,指责政府是出于“政治原因”扣着福利不发,甚至直接下令农业部动用其他项目的资金来补上这个缺口。
雷总
对,这就把冲突从国会引向了司法领域。司法部的律师立刻反驳,说如果允许法官这样做,会引发“司法强制下的银行挤兑”,让整个停摆局面更加混乱。他们甚至把官司打到了最高法院。你看,行政、立法、司法,三权分立变成了三方混战。
董小姐
简直是胡闹!一个国家的司法部长,竟然公开指责下级法院的裁决是“最糟糕的司法能动主义”。这说明内部的矛盾已经完全公开化、白热化了。他们不是在解决问题,而是在激化矛盾。在这样的混乱局面下,怎么可能指望经济能好起来?企业的外部经营环境,最怕的就是这种政策上的巨大不确定性。
雷总
这种不确定性的冲击是立竿见影的。首先遭殃的就是华盛顿本地的这些小微企业。你想,几十万联邦雇员突然没了收入,他们首先削减的就是非必要开支。下馆子、去酒吧、购物……这些消费活动几乎瞬间停滞。
董小姐
没错,现金流就是企业的生命线。华盛顿餐饮协会早就叫苦了,说他们本来就因为季节性因素和之前国民警卫队上街导致利润微薄,现在更是雪上加霜。一家东北部的英式酒吧老板说,他店里的生意直接腰斩,下降了50%。要不是因为房子是自己的,没有租金压力,早就关门了。
雷总
是的,这位老板还说了一句很关键的话:他店里还有空座,就意味着周围那些靠他家“溢出”客流的小酒吧,连一个客人都捞不着了。这就是连锁反应。布鲁金斯学会的研究员也警告,很多企业就指望着第四季度冲业绩,现在这部分消费没了,很可能就从盈利直接变成亏损。
董小姐
对个人的影响就更直接、更残酷了。文章里提到了一个叫西娅·普莱斯的女士,她和她丈夫,一个在和平研究所工作,一个在博物馆当承包商,先后都失业了。他们只能靠着积蓄、医疗补助和食品券度日。结果停摆一来,食品券的资金也断了。
雷总
这个故事的结局,让人非常心酸。西娅说,弗吉尼亚州虽然补发了一部分钱,但根本不够。在所有办法都用尽之后,他们一家人别无选择,只能搬离华盛顿,回到西雅图的老家。她说,“我们再也承担不起在这个地区待下去的代价了”。一个家庭的命运,就这样被彻底改变了。
董小姐
这就是最可怕的地方。危机不仅仅是暂时的财务困难,它会迫使人们动用自己的养老金和储蓄,借未来的钱来支付今天的基本生活费。食品银行的负责人也警告,人们正在“透支自己的未来”。这种伤害,是长期的,甚至是不可逆的。
雷总
那么,风暴过后,未来会怎么样呢?一些经济模型给出了预测。比如,哈钦斯中心的财政影响模型就显示,因为这次长达六周的停摆,2025年第四季度的GDP增长率预计会降低1.4个百分点。这就像一个高速运行的CPU,被人为降频了。
董小姐
但是,一旦政府重新开门,就像把积压的订单一次性释放,经济又会有一个强劲的反弹。模型预测2026年第一季度的GDP增长会因此提升大约2个百分点。这种剧烈的波动,对市场来说可不是什么好消息,它本身就代表着巨大的不确定性。
雷总
对。而且,一些深层次的问题并不会随着政府开门而消失。比如食品券项目面临的资金危机,文章里用了一个词,叫“饥饿悬崖”。意思是,危机就在眼前,最先感受到冲击的就是妇女、儿童这些最脆弱的群体。食品银行根本不可能完全替代政府的这些福利项目。
董小姐
说到底,这次事件给所有人都上了一课。一个发达国家的政府,停摆超过一个月,这本身就是极不正常的。我们正处在一个完全未知的领域。这次危机的代价,不仅仅是经济数字,更是无数家庭的痛苦和对未来的绝望。这种沉默的人道代价,震耳欲聋。
雷总
今天的讨论就到这里。政府停摆的冰冷数字背后,是无数家庭的挣扎和一个个被改变的命运。感谢您收听 Goose Pod。
董小姐
明天再会。希望下一次我们讨论的,是关于重建和希望的话题。再见。

本次播客深入探讨了美国政府停摆对经济的严峻打击。停摆导致联邦雇员失业或无薪工作,严重冲击食品保障体系,食品银行需求激增。经济活动停滞,小微企业生存艰难,民众生活受困,甚至被迫搬离首都。此次停摆不仅是经济损失,更是社会危机。

Washington’s struggling economy takes another hit from the government shutdown

Read original at AP News

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the combination of the longest government shutdown, the mass firings of government workers and a fresh cut in federal food aid, the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington is bracing for the swell of people who will need its help before the holiday season. The food bank, which serves 400 pantries and aid organizations in the District of Columbia, northern Virginia and two Maryland counties, is providing 8 million more meals than it had prepared to this budget year — a nearly 20% increase.

The city is being hit “especially hard,” said Radha Muthiah, the group’s CEO and president, “because of the sequence of events that has occurred over the course of this year.”The nation’s capital has been battered by a series of decisions by the Trump administration, from the layoffs of federal workers to the ongoing law enforcement intervention into the district.

The added blow of the shutdown, which has furloughed workers and paused money for food assistance, is only deepening the economic toll. The latest figures from the D.C. Office of Revenue Analysis do not account for workforce changes since the shutdown that began Oct. 1. But even the September jobs report shows that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hovers at 6%, compared with the most recent national rate of 4.

3%, and has been the highest in the nation for months. The economic woes appear to be reverberating politically. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won election Tuesday as Virginia’s governor after focusing her campaign message on the effects of President Donald Trump’s actions on the state’s economy. The shutdown’s long-term impact on the regional economy will be felt long after the government reopens, experts say.

Local businesses feeling the crunchWashington has the country’s largest share of federal workers — about 20%, according to official figures — and roughly 150,000 federal employees call the area home. By Monday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the country will have missed at least two full paychecks because of the shutdown.

Nationally, at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while about 730,000 are working without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. During the shutdown, the number of federal employees on Washington’s transit system each weekday has dropped by about one-quarter compared with ridership in September.

Eateries that the Restaurant Association of Greater Washington says were already dealing with thin margins from seasonal declines and the fallout from Trump’s deployment of armed National Guard members on city streets are facing more challenges at a time when owners had hoped for a rebound.Tracy Hadden Loh, a fellow at Brookings Metro, a think tank, said that going without paychecks is causing significant cash flow issues for federal workers, potentially leading to defaults on mortgages and student loans.

For local businesses, especially those reliant on federal workers’ discretionary spending, it could exacerbate the impact during the high-sales October-December quarter. “A lot of businesses rely on higher spending in Q4 in order to have a revenue positive year,” Loh said. Small businesses are feeling the loss of that spending.

The crowd watching Liverpool’s Premier League game last weekend would have been standing room only at The Queen Vic, a bar in Northeast Washington. But that was not the case, said Ryan Gordon, co-owner of the British pub.“We still had seats for people, which means the bars around us who get our overflow got nothing,” Gordon said.

Business is down about 50% compared with what it was before the shutdown, he said. He considers himself lucky in the local restaurant scene because he owns the building and does not have to pay rent.“To the extent to which discretionary spending by D.C. area households is limited, that could push a lot of local businesses into the red,” Loh said.

The culmination of the shutdown, cut in SNAP benefits and layoffs are weighing heavy on households that have never sought help before, she added. A family gets squeezed out of the regionThea Price was fired from her job at the U.S. Institute of Peace in March of this year, part of the wave of layoffs meant to shrink the size of the federal government.

Her husband, a government contractor, also lost his job at a museum. Since then, they have lived on savings, Medicaid and SNAP.Price, 37, recently went to a food pantry in Arlington, Virginia, for the first time recently. The shutdown halted funding for SNAP, after it took her months to get it, and the $500 payments she receives each month were set to stop.

Virginia sent a partial payment but it was not enough, Price said. With her options to sustain herself and her family running out, Price is moving back to her hometown in the Seattle area.“We can’t afford to stay in the area any longer and hope that something might pan out,” she said. “We’re just in a much different place than when these things started in March.

” At the Capital Area Food Bank in Northeast Washington, forklifts sped around in a controlled chaos, unloading trucks, moving food and preparing for a distribution set up for federal employees and contractors, and preparations are intensifying with the holiday season in mind. The organization is expecting to provide 1 million more meals this month than it had anticipated before the shutdown.

“We’re very focused obviously on the immediacy of all of these impacts today and getting food to those who need it,” said Muthiah, the group’s director. But she cautioned there were long-term implications to the unfolding crisis, with people tapping their savings and retirement funds to get by.“People are borrowing against their futures to be able to pay for basic necessities today,” she said.

___Associated Press video journalist Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.

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