Here's a comprehensive summary of the provided news, formatted for readability: ## Australian Markets and Economic Update: September 3, 2025 **News Title:** Live: Tesla sales dive, while September rate cut highly unlikely after GDP figures **Provider:** ABC News **Author:** David Chau **Date Covered:** Wednesday, September 3, 2025 (with data referencing August 2025, August 2024, and Q2 2025) --- ### Key Economic and Market Developments: * **Stronger-than-Expected GDP Figures:** Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the June quarter (April-June 2025) exceeded expectations, showing a **0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) growth** and a **1.8% year-on-year (y/y) pace**. This is described as "good news" for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and a "substantial pick-up in growth" by Treasurer Jim Chalmers. * **Drivers of Growth:** Household spending led the growth, supported by end-of-financial-year sales and the proximity of holidays. Consumer spending grew by a stronger-than-expected **0.9%**. Government spending also contributed positively. * **Productivity Improvement:** Productivity grew by **0.3%** for the quarter, a turnaround from previous flatlining and declines. * **GDP Per Capita:** The data indicates that Australia is **not in a per capita recession**, with GDP per capita growing by **0.2%** in the quarter. * **Concerns about Private Investment:** Despite the overall positive GDP, private business investment remains a concern, with a **0.2% decline** in the quarter. Economists describe this as "underwhelming" and a drag on the economy. * **RBA Rate Cut Outlook:** The stronger GDP figures have significantly diminished the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in September. * **September Rate Cut "Probably Gone":** Economists widely agree that the chance of a September rate cut has "probably disappeared." * **November Rate Cut Expected:** The consensus is shifting towards a rate cut in **November**, contingent on a benign September quarter CPI inflation report. Some economists predict a **25 basis point (bp) cut** in November, bringing the cash rate to **3.35%**, followed by another **25bp cut in March 2026** to a terminal rate of **3.10%**. * **Underlying Inflation:** A sharp bounce back in annual trimmed mean (underlying) inflation from **2.1% to 2.7%** in the July monthly CPI report is a factor the RBA will consider cautiously. * **Australian Share Market Performance:** The Australian share market (ASX 200) was **unmoved by the stronger GDP figures** and was trading at a **three-week low**, down **-0.5% to 8,857 points**. This is attributed to global economic concerns, particularly regarding rising bond yields. * **Global Market Snapshot:** * **Wall Street:** Downbeat session with the Dow Jones (-0.6%), S&P 500 (-0.7%), and Nasdaq (-0.8%). * **Europe:** FTSE (-0.9%), DAX (-2.3%), Stoxx 600 (-1.5%). * **Commodities and Currencies:** * **Spot Gold:** Hitting fresh records, rising **+1.6% to $US3,532/ounce**. * **Oil (Brent crude):** Up **+1.4% to $US69.10/barrel**. * **Iron Ore:** Up **+0.8% to $US102.50/tonne**. * **Australian Dollar:** Down **-0.7% to 65.1 US cents**. * **Tesla Sales Dive in Australia:** Tesla's sales in Australia have seen a significant decline. * **Overall Sales Down 35%:** Tesla sales are down **35% year-to-date** compared to the same period in 2024. * **Model 3 Hit Hardest:** The Tesla Model 3 has experienced the largest drop, with sales down **-43.27%** for August 2025 compared to August 2024, and **-63.73%** year-to-date. * **Model Y Performance:** The Tesla Model Y saw a **7.47% increase** in August 2025 sales compared to August 2024, but a **-12.43% decline** year-to-date. * **August Sales Pickup:** Despite the overall downturn, Tesla's sales did pick up in the month of August 2025, with almost **3,000 units sold** compared to just under 2,400 in August 2024. * **Polestar Growth:** Polestar, owned by Geely, is showing sales growth of **46%** year-to-date, albeit from a low base. * **Booming Chinese Car Brands in Australia:** In contrast to Tesla's performance, Chinese car brands are surging in Australia. * **Four Brands in Top 10:** For the first time, four Chinese brands (BYD, GWM, MG, and Chery) are among the top 10 best-selling brands nationally. * **Significant Sales Increase:** A total of **20,070 Chinese-made vehicles** were sold in August 2025, a **67% increase** compared to August 2024. * **Ford Ranger Still Top Seller:** The Ford Ranger remains the top-selling car in Australia. * **Global Economic Concerns: Bond Yields:** A significant factor influencing market sentiment is the rise in bond yields globally. * **Rising Borrowing Costs:** Bonds are indicating an increase in the cost of governments borrowing money for extended periods. * **Japanese Government Bond Yield:** The yield on the 30-year Japanese Government Bond hit a high of **3.275%**, its highest ever. * **US and Australian Treasury Yields:** US Treasury yields and Australian Treasury yields are also moving higher. * **"Bond Vigilantes" Return:** This trend is attributed to "bond vigilantes" reacting to large fiscal deficits. * **DOJ Ruling a "Big Win" for Apple and Google:** A federal judge in the US has ruled in favor of Google and Apple, stating that Google is not required to sell off its Chrome web browser or Android devices. * **Search Deal Remains:** The ruling allows the **$20 billion search deal** between Google and Apple to continue in its current form, removing a significant overhang for Apple's stock. * **AI Partnership Potential:** This ruling lays the groundwork for Apple to potentially double down on AI-related partnerships with Google Gemini in the future. * **Trump Tariff Impact on Australian Exports:** Analysis of GDP figures suggests a potential, albeit not massive, impact of US tariffs on Australian exports. * **Transport Equipment Decline:** There was a **15.2% decline** in transport equipment exports from Australia in Q2 2025, a sector that includes car and truck parts. * **Coal and Iron Ore:** Coal exports fell slightly, while iron ore volume increased. This is attributed to factors like weather rather than a significant slowdown in demand from China. * **Overall Impact Not a "Huge Flashing Red Light":** While some impact is noted, the overall figures do not indicate a major negative consequence from tariffs. * **Protest at Darwin Mining Convention:** Protests were held outside a resources and mining forum in Darwin following an ABC investigation. * **Methane Leak at DLNG Plant:** An ABC investigation revealed a design flaw at the Darwin Liquefied Natural Gas (DLNG) plant has led to **thousands of tonnes of methane leaking** since 2006. * **Santos Cleared to Use Faulty Tank:** Santos has been cleared to use the faulty tank until 2050 for its new Barossa gas project without fixing the leak or measuring emissions, a decision environmentalists have called a "national scandal." --- **Disclaimer:** This blog is not intended as investment advice.
Live: Tesla sales dive, while September rate cut highly unlikely after GDP figures
Read original at ABC →The latest GDP figures out today are "good news" for the RBA, with it expected to push forward with several more rate cuts, according to one economist.Meanwhile, the Australian share market is unmoved by the stronger than expected figures, and is at a three-week low after a downbeat session on Wall Street.
In commodities news, the price of gold is hitting fresh records as it continues to rise above $US3,500 an ounce.See how the trading day unfolds on our live blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.Key Events1 hours agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 3:28am1 hours agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 3:15am1 hours agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:53am4h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 12:18amMarket snapshotASX 200: -0.
5% to 8,857 pointsAustralian dollar: -0.7% to 65.1 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-0.6%), S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq (-0.8%)Europe: FTSE (-0.9%), DAX (-2.3%), Stoxx 600 (-1.5%)Spot gold: +1.6% to $US3,532/ounceOil (Brent crude): +1.4% to $US69.10/barrelIron ore: +0.8% to $US102.50/tonneBitcoin: +2.2% to $US111,536Prices current around 10:20am AESTLive updates on the major ASX indices: 11m agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 4:23amProtests outside Darwin mining convention after ABC investigation(ABC News)We just got these photos from our Darwin bureau of a protest held outside the tropical city's convention centre, where a forum about resources and mining is being held this week.
This protest came after an ABC investigation revealed on Monday, that a design flaw in a storage tank at the Darwin Liquefied Natural Gas (DLNG) plant, has led to it leaking thousands of tonnes of climate-polluting methane since its inception in 2006.(ABC News)(ABC News)Santos has been cleared to use the faulty tank until 2050 for its new Barossa gas project without fixing the leak or measuring emissions, in what environmentalists have branded a "national scandal".
This followed advice to Santos over the leak from the federal Clean Energy Regulator and CSIRO, which neither agency has been willing to detail publicly.More on the latest on that ABC investigation here.26m agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 4:08amMore on the Tesla sales figures in AustraliaYou can see this breakdown on what is happening to Tesla's sales here in Australia, in this just released data by the EVC.
Overall, sales are down for Tesla by 35% this year, compared to the same period to August in 2024.By Vehicle ModelAugust 2025August 202420252024AugustYTDTesla Model Y23241330133101519974.74%-12.43%Tesla Model 36031063468012902-43.27%-63.73%49m agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 3:45amASX more spooked by bonds than GDPYou might have noticed the ASX also continued dropping today, after the release of GDP data.
IG's Tony Sycamore says this is way more to do with global economic concerns about.... bonds.Put simply, bonds are showing the cost of governments borrowing money for long periods of time is going up.Here's some more from Tony:I think the falls in the ASX200 is more being driven by the rise in bond yields.
The Yield on the 30yr Japanese Government Bond just hit a high of 3.275%, the highest ever and US Treasury yields and ours here in Australia are also moving higher.The bond vigilantes aren’t happy about large fiscal deficits and after sitting it out on the sidelines for the past few months, they are back in a big way.
Key Event1h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 3:28amChinese car brands booming in Australia as Tesla sales dive in 2025In some other news today: Sales of Chinese-made cars are surging in Australia, according to the latest sales figures by one of the country's automotive industry's lobby groups.FCAI's latest sales results show that, for the first time, four Chinese brands are in the national top 10 of brands sold.
That includes: BYD, GWM, MG and Chery."A total of 20,070 Chinese-made vehicles were sold in August, which was 67 per cent higher than in August 2024," they add.According to the FCAI's data, the top selling car in Australia is still the Ford Ranger. It is worth noting that FCAI doesn't collect all sales data, after a spat last year about emissions policy with Tesla and Polestar.
The EVC, which now puts out sales data for those two EV purist brands, has also just released its August sales data too.And they ain't good for Elon Musk's company.They show sales of Teslas are down 35% this year so far compared to 2024.The biggest hit is to the Tesla Model 3, which has sold only 4680 this year, compared to 12902 the same time last year.
We've gone to Tesla about why its sales are diving overall in 2025. There has been a lot of commentary about the Elon Musk effect, after the company's founder aligned himself with Donald Trump.Interestingly, Tesla's sales did pick up in the actual month of August, up at almost 3,000 for the last month compared to just under 2400 in August 2024.
Polestar (which is owned by Chinese company Geely) is growing its sales, which are up 46% this year so far, albeit it off a very low base of just over 1000 cars sold last year.For more on Tesla's woes, my colleague Rachel Clayton wrote this feature earlier this year.Key Event1h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 3:15amDOJ ruling a 'big win' for Apple and Google?
any update on the google ruling that has finally dropped and cause a major jump for google and apple in face of the down day across most of the market.- MatthewHi Matthew. I've covered the various cases against Google for a while now, and this latest ruling by a federal judge in the US is a big one!
The topline is that Google isn't being told to sell off its Chrome web browser or Android devices. There had been thoughts the company owned by Alphabet would be forced to break itself up, as part of anti-trust rulings.Here's part of a note from US based tech analyst, Dan Ives, who goes further into the ramifications for another huge Nasdaq-listed tech company, Apple.
Google and Apple just got a massive win from the courts ruling that the ongoing $20 billion search deal between the two stalwarts will remain and not be barred in its current form.This was a black cloud worry over Apple's stock as investors worried a Google Chrome breakup and/or forced to extinguish the search deal with Apple was potentially on the docket.
This is a monster win for Cupertino (ed note: the headquarters of Apple in California) and for Google. It's a home run ruling that removes a huge overhang on the stock. While in theory Google is barred from "exclusive deals" for search this now lays the groundwork for Apple to continue its deal and ultimately likely double down on more AI related partnership with Google Gemini down the road.
So this explains the stock gains!1h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:58amFor more on today's GDP figuresYou can read this full story by our business editor, Michael Janda.Key Event1h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:53amGDP analysis: Is there any Trump tariff impact in the figures?I just got off the phone to Oxford Economics' Sean Langcake, who looked a bit further at today's GDP data to see if there is anything in the export figures about Trump's tariffs.
Q2 correlates with the start of Trump's tariff agenda.As we know, Australia is only getting 10% tariffs for exports into the US, and we don't send much directly to the States anyways, only around 4% of our exports.But Sean had a look at some topline numbers, and found the interesting tidbit that there has been a 15.
2% decline in transport equipment exports from Australia in Q2.He says this sector would include things like car and truck parts, which Australia does actually make and export, including to the US which is a "key market".Apart from this, the other place to look for impact from Trump's tariffs would be whether they are hurting our key trading partner, China, which has received higher import impositions on its goods into the States.
Sean notes that exports of coal fell slightly, but then the volume of iron ore increased. This could be due to weather, rather than issues like slowing demand from China."It's hard to see anything that's a huge flashing red light," he told me.1h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:43amThanks for your comments on GDPCould it be that the household saving ratio has fallen because of, as opposed to despite, the recent interest rate cuts?
I’ve moved some of my cash savings into other investments due to falling interest rates. - Jonathan Key Event2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:34amGDP analysis: Chance of a September rate cut basically goneThis one from IG's Tony Sycamore:While today’s numbers all but rule out an RBA rate cut in September, the pace of expansion suggests further loosening of monetary policy is needed to ensure the Australian economy can sustainably reach the RBA’s forecast of 2.
1% for the December quarter of 2026. We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting in November, bringing the cash rate to 3.35%, and to deliver another 25bp rate in March 2026 with the cash rate hitting a terminal rate of 3.10%.And this one from Oliver Hume chief economist Matt Bell. The immediate impact on property markets of today’s stronger-than-expected GDP result is that any chance of a September rate cut has probably disappeared.
Financial markets weren't sold on a September rate cut anyways. But it's really seeming that November is the crystal ball consensus emerging after these GDP figures.2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:32amAustralian Super's boss about to front the Press ClubPaul Schroder is today's Press Club speaker. You can watch it live on ABC News Channel now.
2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:32amVerrender: Turns out productivity wasn't a problem after allOur chief business correspondent Ian Verrender has been crunching the GDP figures.And found something interesting.= = = = = = = = = = = = =Well, that was quick. A productivity summit one week and the next thing you know, problem solved.
Productivity grew 0.3 per cent for the quarter after flatlining in the first quarter and spending most of last year deep in the red. The ABS wisely opted to offer absolutely no reason for the sudden improvement, given no-one can agree on anything when it comes to productivity. One school of thought is that productivity improves if wage rises prompt businesses to invest in new machinery and technology.
The other is that, without productivity growth, you can’t expect higher wages without inflation. So, what comes first? The chicken or the egg?Wages did indeed grow during the quarter, up 1.1 per cent, as the private sector increased headcount and wages while the federal election and enterprise agreements lifted pay.
But investment remained weak. In fact, it went backwards. Government investment dropped 3.9 per cent in the quarter as federal and state governments cut back on roads, rail and health.Private investment didn’t exactly pick up the slack, growing at just 0.1%, with dwellings leading the charge and some noticeable lifts in computer software and research and development.
Maybe everyone just decided to pull out the finger as the dark shadow of the Economic Forum cast a pall over the quarter. 2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:30amAustralian economy is gaining ground, Treasurer saysTreasurer Jim Chalmers says today's GDP figures are very welcome and a substantial pick-up in growth.
Chalmers says the Australian economy is gaining momentum in a globally challenging economic environment."What we saw in the June quarter was the equal-fastest quarterly growth rate in almost three years, and the fastest annual growth rate in almost two years," Chalmers says."This is the private sector recovery that we were planning for, preparing for and hoping for," he added.
He said private demand contributed 0.4 of a percentage point to growth, and GDP per capita grew by 0.2 per cent in the quarter."Our economy is in an enviable position despite all our challenges that we acknowledge and are upfront about, the comparisons with our peers show that we are in an enviable position," he says.
For more on the treasurer's response, you can watch it live on ABC's politics live blog.2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:27amRBA to cut rates in November: BassaneseBetashares economist David Bassanese has a a cutting line in his GDP analysis:"Australia’s economy is slowly crawling out of its hole."Ouch."While economic growth in the June quarter was a bit better than expected, it was still relatively subdued ...
a bright spot in today’s report was a stronger than expected 0.9% gain in consumer spending, which along with a step-down in public investment so far this year is helping rebalance economic growth back toward private demand. With further RBA cuts likely and easing inflation, the outlook for consumer spending remains encouraging, though far from buoyant."
He sees private business investment as "missing in action", with a 0.2% decline in the quarter after a small 0.1% gain in the March quarter. A housing recovery "also appears to have stalled".What does it mean for rates?"In terms of monetary policy implications, today’s report was not weak enough to justify an RBA rate cut at this month’s policy meeting, but also not strong enough to rule out a rate cut in November provided the September quarter CPI inflation report is benign.
The RBA will be especially cautious about a rate cut this month given the sharp bounce back in annual trimmed mean (underlying) inflation from 2.1% to 2.7% in the July monthly CPI report."My base cases remains that the RBA will cut rates in November, following confirmation that annual trimmed mean inflation in the Q3 CPI report is no higher than 2.
6%."2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:24amBillions-watcher says GDP result shows 'underwhelming' private investmentAlex Joiner is the chief economist at IFM Investors, which manages more than $220 billion on behalf of Australian superannuation funds.Here's his take on the Australian National Accounts for Q2 2025.
Rate cuts might waitPrivate sector growth "underwhelming"Government needs to push productivity measuresBut why am I putting words in his mouth? I don't have a PhD!But he does, so take this take:"The Australian economy expanded 0.6%qoq and 1.8%yoy in the June quarter, finally registering moving back to per capita growth.
The result came in slight stronger than RBA expectations (benefitting from an upward revision of the March quarter), further weakening the case for another rate cut in September."Private demand improved in the quarter led by the household sector that experienced solid growth supported by end of financial year sales and the proximity of Anzac Day to Easter drove this outcome.
It was facilitated by strong disposable income growth and a decline in the savings ratio. Dwelling investment edged higher as the residential construction cycle fails to gather any momentum as yet. But it was business investment that was the drag, disappointing modest expectations with uncertainty around the global and domestic environment holding back the sector.
Public demand was relatively soft overall as a strong contribution from spending was offset by a decline in investment (the largest fall since Q3 2017, outside the pandemic period)."The transition from the public sector to the private sector, particularly the businesses, as the key driver of economic growth is still underwhelming.
If we are to keep the unemployment rate low, this transition needs to take place to reinvigorate employment growth on a sustainable basis. We should not just leave this process to the RBA cutting rates and clearly there is a role for governments flush with ideas after the Economic Roundtable to facilitate this rotation."
2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:15amGDP result 'encouraging confirmation' about the impact of Trump tariff turmoilStarting to get some commentary on the GDP result.Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia, says: GDP growth picked up to 0.6% q/q in Q2, taking the y/y pace to 1.
8%.Household spending led the way in the June quarter. There was a rebound from Q1 when weather events curtailed the number of trading days. Moreover, the close proximity of the Easter and ANZAC day holidays helped boost spending on hospitality and recreation services. Government spending also provided a steady boost to growth.
Demand for health services drove growth, while spending on the federal election also helped spur government consumption.Private investment edged a little higher in the quarter, despite aa strong pullback in construction activity. Publicly funded works on health and transport projects also fell sharply in the quarter.
Inflation pressures continue to bubble along, with the domestic price deflator up another 0.7% q/q. Labour costs remain the key driver here, reflected in the 1.1% q/q increase in compensation of employees. While this helped drive steady income growth for households, the savings rate ticked down sharply due to the spending spree in Q2.
Today’s data are an encouraging confirmation that heightened global uncertainty did not take a heavy toll on the economy in Q2. Still, Q2 may prove to be a high watermark for growth in 2025. The June quarter benefitted from a rebound from a soft Q1, business and consumer confidence are still a little shaky and the labour market appears to be cooling.
2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:07amWhat does GDP mean for RBA rates moves? One more cut this year, says KPMG economistTaking a break from the ABC NEWS Channel where I've been speaking to KPMG's chief economist, Brendan Rynne.I asked him, given we're now in the June quarter, and this is backward-looking data, what will the RBA make of this quarterly GDP data for a period already gone?"
I think that they will view this data quite positively. "I think that the rate outlook is still, from our perspective, that we'll see another75 basis points worth of cuts to bring the bottom of the interest rate cycle down to around 2.85%, assuming that we continue with thisnon-0.25% increments. "Our expectation is that we'll definitely have one more rate cut this year.
And whether it turns to two — this data is now probably suggesting that that is unlikely. "That will push two more rate cuts into the beginning of next year. So that we can bring the cash rate back down to more neutral level of around 3%."2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:05amGDP analysis: Is Q2 the best it will get for 2025?
This analysis just landed in my inbox about the latest GDP figures, which are showing growth picked up a bit higher than expectations in the April to June quarter.As Oxford Economics's Sean Langcake writes:Household spending led the way in the June quarter. There was a rebound from Q1 when weather events curtailed the number of trading days.
Moreover, the close proximity of the Easter and ANZAC day holidays helped boost spending on hospitality and recreation services.Government spending also provided a steady boost to growth. Demand for health services drove growth, while spending on the federal election also helped spur government consumption.
Today’s data are an encouraging confirmation that heightened global uncertainty did not take a heavy toll on the economy in Q2. Still, Q2 may prove to be a high watermark for growth in 2025. The June quarter benefitted from a rebound from a soft Q1, business and consumer confidence are still a little shaky and the labour market appears to be cooling.
Key Event2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:02amGDP analysis: The 'private side' of the economy 'has come to the party'KPMG's chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne just spoke to my colleague Alicia Barry on ABC News Channel about the latest GDP figures, which show growth a bit higher than expected."It does look like a bit of a turnaround in consumption activity," he told ABC News."
Conversely what we've also seen is a drop in household savings. So it does look like the private side of the economy has come to the party a bit more."He says the drop in savings might be what's pushing spending, and also this correlates with higher consumer sentiment that is being reported by polling.
He continued:"Households are starting to feel better about life in general. We are still seeing large amounts of Australians working. We're still basically at full employment levels"What you're seeing is a combination of those stage 3 tax cuts from last year, and those cuts to interest rates (which aren't being fully taken into this data)."
You're seeing households feel better about spending money."Dr Rynne also notes this data shows Australians are not in a per capita recession. "I do think this is quite significant," he adds.2h agoWed 3 Sep 2025 at 2:01amTreasurer to speak at 12.30 about GDP resultI don't have a cup of tea that I can read the leaves of, but I'll predict that Treasurer Jim Chalmers will be pleased with the higher than expected GDP result when he speaks at 12.
30pm AEST.We'll bring you the best bits.
