特朗普关税威胁全球经济稳定

特朗普关税威胁全球经济稳定

2025-07-19Business
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David
跑了松鼠,下午好。我是David,今天是7月19日,星期六。
Ema
我是Ema,欢迎收听 Goose Pod。今天我们来聊聊特朗普的关税威胁。
Ema
我们开始吧。最近,联合国贸易和发展会议的秘书长警告,特朗普的关税政策可能引发全球经济的“连锁反应”,就像推倒了第一块多米诺骨牌,听起来很严重。
David
确实如此。这不仅是口头警告,UNCTAD已将全球GDP增长预测从2.8%下调至2.3%。这0.5%的降幅意味着全球经济实实在在地放缓了,商业决策也因不确定性而陷入停滞。
Ema
要理解现在,得先回顾一下。特朗普的“美国优先”策略由来已久。他在竞选时就承诺要重谈北美自由贸易协定,还说跨太平洋伙伴关系协定是‘美国制造业的死刑’。
David
没错。他的贸易观可以追溯到80年代,认为别国占了美国便宜。所以他上任三天就让美国退出TPP,旨在推行他所谓的‘公平、双边’的贸易交易,把工作带回美国。
Ema
所以这和以往的自由贸易政策是彻底决裂。他甚至宣称,关税能让‘数十亿美元流入美国国库’。听起来很诱人,但经济学家们好像并不同意?
David
是的,经济学家的普遍看法恰恰相反。他们指出,关税本质上是进口商支付的税,成本最终会转嫁给消费者,反而可能导致物价上涨和经济增长放缓。
Ema
这就造成了巨大的冲突。一方面,特朗普政府把关税当作大棒,一种迫使他国谈判的强硬手段,他们认为这是在保护美国的产业和就业。
David
对,而且他们的策略似乎包含‘战略不确定性’。通过不断改变威胁和期限,让对手感到困惑,从而获取让步。口号就是‘先加关税,后谈协议’。
Ema
但像联合国这样的国际组织,看法就完全不同了。他们看到的不是什么谈判技巧,而是对全球稳定的直接威胁,尤其是对发展中国家。
David
他们的核心论点是,这种单边行为破坏了全球供应链,制造了混乱。由于前景不明,企业不敢投资,最终伤害的是所有人,而不只是被针对的国家。
Ema
而且我们已经看到了实际影响,对吧?特别是对那些发展中国家。报告里提到了柬埔寨,对于这样的国家来说,后果可能是灾难性的。
David
完全正确。对柬埔寨而言,对美出口占其GDP的10%以上。关税可能使其损失超过45亿美元的出口额。而越南和马来西亚这些国家,也同样面临冲击。
Ema
再加上红海的货运中断,又给全球通胀火上浇油。这简直是场完美风暴。
David
展望未来,前景令人担忧。有预测警告美国可能出现经济衰退和滞胀,也就是经济停滞和通胀并存。长期来看,这甚至可能导致美国GDP下降6%。
Ema
所以未来的走向,取决于这些贸易紧张局势如何发展了。
David
今天的讨论就到这里。感谢 跑了松鼠 收听Goose Pod。
Ema
我们明天再见!

## Summary of "Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Global Economic Stability" **News Title:** Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Global Economic Stability **Report Provider:** ShareCafe **Author:** Sharecafe Team **Published Date:** July 16, 2025 --- ### Key Findings and Concerns: A senior United Nations trade official, Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary General of UNCTAD (the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), is issuing a stark warning about the potential consequences of President Trump's tariff policies. She asserts that the enactment of "steepest trade taxes" could initiate a **"cascade" effect across the already slowing global economy**, leading to significant job losses and widespread instability. ### Critical Information and Statistics: * **Disruption of Global Supply Chains:** UNCTAD reports that Trump's policies are actively disrupting global supply chains and generating new costs for businesses. * **Business Uncertainty:** The prevailing uncertainty is paralyzing business decisions, negatively impacting trade volumes. * **Downward Revision of Global GDP Forecasts:** * UNCTAD has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for the current year by **0.5%**, bringing it down from **2.8% to 2.3%**. * This revision is attributed to the current economic climate, which UNCTAD previously described as having global investment at "financial crisis levels." * **Impact on Developing Nations:** * Less developed nations are particularly vulnerable. Exports from these countries could **plummet by over half** due to the tariffs. * The "layering of tariffs" is expected to disproportionately affect the least developed nations. * **Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia**, which had previously benefited from the "China Plus One" supply chain strategy, are now facing renewed impacts as supply chains are shifting again. * **Cambodia's exports to the U.S. represent over 10% of its GDP.** Tariffs could result in the loss of **over $4.5 billion in exports for Cambodia over the next four years.** * **Red Sea Disruptions and Inflation:** * Grynspan also highlighted inflationary pressures stemming from disruptions in the Red Sea, where attacks on freight vessels have increased. * The Red Sea situation alone could add **0.6% to global prices**, further exacerbating strain on the global supply chain. * **Complexity and Time for Deals:** Grynspan emphasized that trade deals are inherently complex and require time to finalize. The current environment of uncertainty is hindering economic growth and investment. ### Conclusion: The UNCTAD official's warning underscores the significant risks associated with escalating trade protectionism. The potential for a cascading negative effect on the global economy, particularly impacting vulnerable developing nations and contributing to inflation, is a major concern. The current climate of uncertainty is identified as a key impediment to economic growth and investment.

Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Global Economic Stability - Sharecafe

Read original at ShareCafe

A top United Nations trade official is warning that President Trump’s tariff policies could trigger a “cascade” effect across the slowing global economy if the steepest trade taxes are enacted. Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary General of UNCTAD, cautioned that tariffs on trading partners worldwide could lead to job losses and instability, particularly in less developed nations where exports may plummet by over half.

UNCTAD, the leading arm of the United Nations focused on trade and development, reports that Trump’s policies are already disrupting global supply chains and creating new costs.Grynspan highlighted the uncertainty paralyzing business decisions, impacting trade and leading to downward revisions in global GDP forecasts.

UNCTAD had previously released data showing global investment at financial crisis levels and forecasts a 0.5% reduction in global growth this year, lowering the global GDP forecast to 2.3% from 2.8%. The organisation monitors investment flows and helps developing countries integrate into the global economy.

Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, which previously benefited from the “China Plus One” supply chain strategy, are now facing impacts as supply chains shift again, according to Grynspan. She also pointed out that the layering of tariffs will disproportionately affect the least developed nations, potentially leading to a reduction in exports of over 50%.

Cambodia’s exports to the U.S., for instance, represent more than 10% of its GDP, and tariffs could erase over $4.5 billion in exports over the next four years.Grynspan also addressed the inflationary challenges arising from disruptions in the Red Sea, where attacks on freight vessels have increased.

She noted that the Red Sea situation alone could add 0.6% to global prices, further straining the global supply chain. According to Grynspan these deals are complex and take time to complete, and the current uncertainty is impacting economic growth and investment. Post Views: 74

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