特朗普延长中美贸易休战提振市场

特朗普延长中美贸易休战提振市场

2025-08-29Business
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金姐
早上好,老王!我是金姐。欢迎收听专为您打造的 Goose Pod。今天是8月29日,星期五。
雷总
我是雷总。今天,我们来聊一个让全球市场都为之一振的话题:特朗普延长中美贸易休战提振市场。
金姐
我们这就开始吧。雷总,你看,特朗普这边一宣布延长休战,北京那边也立马跟进,暂停加征关税90天。哎哟喂,全球股市立马就跟打了鸡血似的,日本、澳大利亚的股市都创下新高。这反应是不是有点太快了?
雷总
是很快,这说明市场信心太需要这样的好消息了。现在市场上还有一股强大的力量,就是对人工智能AI的热情。科技巨头们因为AI概念,股价一路高歌。所以这次的上涨,既有休战的功劳,也有AI热潮的推动。
金姐
哦?听起来就像是双重利好。不过我可得提醒一句,现在很多人都在担心,说现在这AI热潮和当年那个互联网泡沫太像了,估值高得离谱。别到时候泡沫一破,摔得更惨!完美!
雷总
这个担心很有道理。不过,现在的科技公司和当年不一样,它们大多有实打实的盈利和庞大的用户基础。但您说的对,风险是存在的,尤其是贸易战这种实实在在的威胁,比市场情绪更容易造成直接冲击。
金姐
说起这贸易战,真是剪不断理还乱。雷总,你给我们这些非专业人士用大白话讲讲,这来来回回的关税到底是怎么回事?我听着都头大。又是2000亿,又是3000亿的。
雷总
好的,我尽量说得简单点。您可以把它想象成一场“价格战”。从2018年开始,美国就以“贸易不公平”为由,对大量中国商品加收额外的“入境费”,也就是关税。最初可能只对一部分商品加,后来范围越来越大。
金姐
那我们这边肯定不能坐以待毙啊,是吧?肯定得反击啊!不然不符合我的风格。
雷总
没错。中国也迅速采取了反制措施,对来自美国的商品加征关税。这就形成了“你来我往”的局面。双方加征关税的商品总额,从几百亿一度升级到几千亿美元。到今年年初,美国对华商品的平均关税已经涨到了19%以上。
金姐
哎哟喂,19%!这可不是个小数目。那后来呢?是不是就有了那个所谓的“第一阶段协议”?听起来好像是暂时休战了?
雷总
对,2020年初,双方签署了“第一阶段贸易协议”,同意暂停一部分关税升级。中国也承诺增加对美国商品和服务的采购。但这并没有完全解决问题,很多关税其实还保留着,所以才有了我们今天讨论的这个“延长休战”。
金姐
我就觉得这事儿没那么简单。表面上说是贸易逆差,特朗普还总拿芬太尼问题说事,把这个当成加关税的理由。这难道就是根本原因吗?我怎么觉得这只是个借口呢?
雷总
金姐您看得透彻。这些确实是摆在台面上的理由,但背后有更深层次的战略考量。美国的核心诉求之一,是想通过贸易战来维护美元的全球霸主地位,并试图延缓中国在科技和经济上的崛起速度。
金姐
哦,我明白了。说白了就是“老大”看“老二”发展太快,心里不舒服了,想使点绊子,对吧?那中国的目标呢?总不能一直被动接招吧。
雷总
中国的目标很明确,就是希望美国能创造一个公平的竞争环境,不要阻碍自己的发展道路。这包括放宽对中国投资的审查、解除技术封锁等等。所以,这不仅仅是贸易的冲突,更是两种发展模式和未来愿景的碰撞。
金姐
这神仙打架,凡人遭殃。这么一折腾,对全球经济的影响肯定小不了吧?我听说很多公司的供应链都乱了套,是不是真的?
雷总
千真万确。将近6000亿美元的双向贸易受到冲击,全球供应链被打乱,很多企业面临成本上升和业务中断的风险,甚至导致裁员。这次能达成90天的休战,至少暂时缓解了全球经济可能陷入衰退的担忧。
金姐
哎哟喂,听着就吓人。那现在休战了,关税也降下来了,对我们普通人来说,是不是意味着进口商品会便宜一些?
雷总
理论上是的。根据协议,美国对中国商品的附加关税从145%降到30%,而中国对美国商品的关税也从125%降到10%。这会直接降低商品成本,对消费者来说是个好消息,也能给金融市场带来稳定。
金姐
但这毕竟只是个90天的“缓刑”。雷总,你觉得这90天之后会怎么样?是真的走向和平,还是说又是一场暴风雨前的宁静?
雷总
我个人比较乐观。因为中美经济的相互依赖性实在太强了,长期对抗对谁都没有好处。这个90天的窗口期非常宝贵,能让双方有更多时间来解决一些长期存在的棘手问题。我相信,达成一个更稳定的协议是最终方向。
金姐
完美!希望如此。今天的讨论就到这里。感谢您收听 Goose Pod。
雷总
我们明天再见。

## Trump's China Trade Truce Extension Sparks Global Market Rally **Report Provider:** The Guardian **Author:** Lauren Almeida **Date:** August 12, 2025 This report details how President Donald Trump's decision to extend a truce in the trade war with China has led to a significant rally in global stock markets. ### Key Developments: * **Truce Extension:** On Monday night, President Trump signed an executive order extending the deadline for higher tariffs on China until **November 10**. * **China's Response:** Beijing announced early Tuesday that it would suspend additional tariffs on US goods for a further **90 days**. * **Market Reaction:** This development triggered a positive market response, with expectations growing for a potential trade agreement between the US and China within this extended pause. ### Market Performance: * **Japan:** Tokyo's Nikkei share index surged by as much as **2.5%** to **42,867.69 points** on Tuesday, reaching record highs. * **Australia:** The Australian ASX 200 index rose by **0.14%**, hitting a high of **8,828.67**. This momentum was also supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting its main interest rate to a two-year low of **3.6%**. * **China:** The Shanghai composite index saw a rise of **0.5%**. * **Hong Kong:** The Hang Seng index remained broadly flat. ### Trade War Context and Potential Risks: * **Previous Threats:** President Trump had previously threatened tariff rates as high as **245%** on Chinese imports, while Beijing had threatened retaliatory tariffs of **125%**. * **Current Tariffs:** Under existing rules, US exports to China face rates of approximately **30%**. Imports from China are subject to a baseline tariff of **10%**, with an additional **20%** tariff related to fentanyl smuggling allegations. * **Economic Concerns:** Economists have warned that the trade war, particularly against China, could severely damage the global economic outlook by increasing costs, disrupting supply chains, and reducing international trade. ### Oil Prices: * **De-escalation Hopes:** Oil prices also saw an increase on Tuesday, fueled by optimism that the trade war could de-escalate. * **Brent Crude:** Brent crude futures rose by **0.4%** to **$66.90 a barrel**. * **West Texas Intermediate (WTI):** US West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by **0.4%** to **$64.20**.

Trump’s China trade truce extension spurs market rally

Read original at The Guardian

Donald Trump’s decision to extend a truce in the trade war with China has triggered a stock market rally across the globe.On Monday night, the US president signed an executive order extending the deadline for higher tariffs on China until 10 November. Beijing said early on Tuesday it would suspend additional tariffs on US goods for a further 90 days.

In response, markets in Japan and Australia hit record highs on Tuesday, as expectations grow that the US and China could secure a trade agreement before the end of another 90-day pause on additional tariffs.Tokyo’s Nikkei share index rose by as much as 2.5% to 42,867.69 points on Tuesday, while the Australian ASX 200 index was up by 0.

14%, reaching a high of 8,828,67. Its momentum was helped by the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting its main interest rate to a two-year low of 3.6%.In China, the Shanghai composite index rose by 0.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index remained broadly flat.Investors are hoping that negotiators will be able to secure a trade deal during the pause on additional tariffs.

Trump has previously threatened tariff rates as high as 245% on Chinese imports, while Beijing has threatened retaliatory tariffs of 125%.Under current rules, US exports to China are subject to rates of about 30%, with imports from China subject to a baseline tariff of 10%, as well as a 20% extra tariff related to fentanyl smuggling allegations against China.

US exports to China are subject to tariffs of about 30%.Economists have warned that Trump’s trade war regime, especially against China, could seriously damage the global economic outlook, as it could lead to higher costs, disrupt supply chains and reduce international trade.Oil prices also rose on Tuesday amid hopes the trade war could de-escalate.

Brent crude futures rose by 0.4% to $66.90 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 0.4% to $64.20.

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