特朗普可能终于摸清了普京的底细

特朗普可能终于摸清了普京的底细

2025-08-04Donald Trump
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雷总
晚上好,老张,我是雷总。今天是8月4日,星期一,晚上9点23分。欢迎收听专为您打造的 Goose Pod。
董小姐
我是董小姐。我们今天来聊一个很有意思的话题:特朗普可能终于摸清了普京的底细。
雷总
我们先来看看核心事件。特朗普最近动作很大,可以说是“三板斧”。第一,他给俄罗斯下了最后通牒,要求8月8号前停止军事行动,否则就加征严厉关税。第二,他公开说派了两艘核潜艇到俄罗斯附近。第三,他还威胁要对买俄罗斯石油的国家,比如中国和印度,征收100%的二次关税。
董小姐
这种做法非常“特朗普”。就像在商业谈判里,一上来就王炸,把所有筹码都摆在桌上。他这是在极限施压。不过,光喊话是没用的,关键要看对方的反应。普京可不是轻易就会被吓住的人。这场较量,看的就是谁的底气更足,谁能坚持到最后。
雷总
没错。俄罗斯前总统梅德韦杰夫立刻就回应了,警告说特朗普的施压是把美国推向战争。这就像两个高手过招,言语交锋,火药味十足。同时,乌克兰的泽连斯基也没闲着,对俄罗斯“影子舰队”的船长们实施了制裁,并且准备和俄罗斯交换1200名战俘。
董小姐
你看,这就是典型的多方博弈。特朗普在前面冲,泽连斯基在后面配合。制裁“影子舰队”就是打击俄罗斯的钱袋子,交换战俘则是一种姿态。这说明,光有军事威胁不够,经济打击和政治姿态必须全部跟上,形成组合拳才有效。
雷总
要理解今天的局面,我们得把时间线拉长看。苏联解体后,美俄关系有过一段“蜜月期”。当时大家都很乐观,觉得冷战结束了,可以做伙伴了。美国承诺帮助俄罗斯融入世界银行和国际货币基金组织,双方还宣布不再将核导弹瞄准对方。我们当时做产品,也觉得全球化市场一片大好。
董小姐
但这种“蜜-月期”很短暂。核心问题在于,双方的战略目标根本不一致。美国和北约不断东扩,一步步压缩俄罗斯的战略空间。从波兰、匈牙利加入北约,到后来承诺乌克兰和格鲁吉亚未来也会成为成员。这就好比商业竞争,你不断挖我的墙角,我怎么可能还把你当朋友?信任的基础从一开始就不牢固。
雷总
是的,这个逻辑很清晰。转折点出现在很多地方,比如1999年北约轰炸南联盟,俄罗斯强烈反对。还有2014年克里米亚事件,这之后,双方的制裁和反制裁就没停过。特朗普上台后,虽然他个人总说想和普京搞好关系,但美国的国家战略没变,该制裁的制裁,该退出的条约,比如《中导条约》,一个也没手软。
董小姐
所以说,不能只看领导人说了什么,要看他做了什么,更要看国家利益的走向。美俄关系这几十年的反复,本质上就是地缘政治的结构性矛盾。俄罗斯想恢复它的影响力,而美国想维持它的主导地位。这个根本矛盾不解决,任何“重启”或者“重置”关系的说辞,都只是换个包装而已,核心产品没变。
雷总
这就引出了现在的核心冲突点。普京的目标是什么?他不仅仅是为了乌克兰,更是要挑战整个冷战后的世界秩序。他多次提到“大俄罗斯”的理念,认为西方忽视了俄罗斯的利益。所以这场战争,在他看来,是恢复国家荣耀和安全边界的必然一步。
董小姐
这种想法,恕我直言,有点一厢情愿。时代变了,还想着用旧地图来指导今天的行动,这是战略上的刻舟求剑。真正的强大不是看你占了多少地方,而是看你的核心科技、经济实力和国民凝聚力。普京的核威胁,更像是一种商业上的恫吓,想用最低的成本,获得最大的谈判筹码。
雷总
董小姐看得透彻。俄罗斯的核理论确实很模糊,它没有承诺“不首先使用核武器”。它的理论是,在国家生存受到威胁时就可以用。但“生存威胁”这个词,解释空间太大了。这就给了西方一个难题:如何援助乌克兰,又不触碰到那根模糊的红线?这是一个非常考验智慧的“精细化运营”。
董小姐
所以,特朗普现在派核潜艇过去,就是一种对等的威慑。你打你的牌,我也打我的牌。这就是在告诉普京,不要以为只有你手里有王炸。这种“胆小鬼游戏”里,谁先眨眼谁就输。我认为,西方到目前为止,在阻止核升级这一点上,做得还算成功。
雷总
这场战争对全球格局的影响是巨大的。首先,它让俄罗斯在全球舞台上变得更加孤立,至少在西方世界是这样。特朗普这种不可预测的行事风格,虽然让盟友头疼,但也确实打破了某种外交上的沉闷。他现在这么一搞,欧洲国家不得不重新审视自己的防务开支,加速“硬件升级”。
董小姐
没错,不能总指望别人。企业经营也是一样,核心技术必须掌握在自己手里。欧洲过去在防务上太过依赖美国,现在特朗普等于是在逼着他们“独立行走”。这对欧洲的长远发展,未必是坏事。至于美国民主的声誉,我觉得这都是次要的,国际政治,最终还是实力说了算。
雷总
还有一个影响,就是经济层面。对俄罗斯的制裁,虽然没能像预期那样迅速摧毁它的经济,但也让它付出了沉重代价。现在特朗普威胁要搞二次制裁,这会让那些和俄罗斯有贸易往来的国家,面临非常艰难的选择。这就像我们的供应链,一个环节出问题,上下游都受影响。
雷总
展望未来,这场战争的走向依然充满变数。特朗普的回归,可能会加速某种形式的“结局”到来,因为他显然不喜欢持久战。未来的援助可能会更集中在无人机、防空系统这些高科技、高效率的装备上,而不是坦克战斗机这种重型平台。
董小姐
最终还是要回到谈判桌上。但谈判的基础是战场上的实力。乌克兰必须证明自己有能力持续抵抗,欧洲也必须拿出真金白银来加强自身防卫。只有这样,才能在未来的谈判中,为自己争取到最有利的条件。光靠别人,是靠不住的。
雷总
今天的讨论就到这里。感谢老张您收听 Goose Pod。我们明天再见。
董小姐
明天见。

Here's a summary of the news from The Independent, focusing on Donald Trump's evolving stance on the Ukraine war and his relationship with Vladimir Putin: ## Donald Trump May Finally Have the Measure of Putin, Suggests The Independent **News Title/Type:** Editorial **Report Provider/Author:** The Independent (Editorial) **Date/Time Period Covered:** The article discusses recent events and implied ongoing developments related to Donald Trump's actions and statements concerning the Ukraine war. The publication date of the article is August 2, 2025. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Trump's Initial Miscalculation:** The editorial suggests that Donald Trump was initially wrong in his belief that he could persuade Vladimir Putin to make peace in Ukraine through a strategy of appeasement and flattery. * **Putin's Unwavering Stance:** Vladimir Putin has demonstrated no genuine interest in negotiation, driven by his belief in a "Greater Russia" and potentially his need to maintain power through perpetual warfare. This means the bloodshed in Ukraine is likely to continue. * **Trump's Shift in Understanding:** The article posits that Trump now appears to understand that Putin is responsible for prolonging the conflict and that appeasement is not a viable strategy. * **Symbolic Gesture of Submarine Deployment:** The deployment of two United States nuclear submarines to patrol "near Russia" is interpreted as a symbolic gesture indicating Trump's increased willingness to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. * **Shortened Sanctions Deadline:** Trump's recent action of shortening the deadline for Russia to avoid enhanced sanctions over the Ukraine war to "10 to 12 days" is seen as a clear, albeit variable, signal of his intent. * **Worsening US-Russia Relations:** The editorial notes that Trump's "war of words" with Dmitry Medvedev, a Putin associate, confirms the lack of common ground between Washington and Moscow. * **Gratitude for Withdrawn Threat:** The article expresses gratitude that Trump did not follow through on his threat to withdraw US support for Ukraine, despite the current level of support being unclear. * **Criticism of Past Actions:** The editorial criticizes Trump's past actions, including the "disgraceful theatrical display" at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his "rudely waking" European allies to their defense responsibilities, particularly if it came at the expense of Ukraine's right to resist aggression. * **Moral Duty to Defend Democracy:** The piece emphasizes the international community's moral duty to defend democracy, human rights, and self-determination, urging all democracies to support Ukraine. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **Sanctions Deadline:** Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to avoid enhanced sanctions to "10 to 12 days." ### Important Recommendations: * All democracies should stand by the Ukrainian people in their time of need, however long it may be. ### Significant Trends or Changes: * A perceived shift in Donald Trump's approach from appeasement to a more assertive stance against Putin's aggression in Ukraine. ### Notable Risks or Concerns: * The ongoing bloodshed in Ukraine, driven by Putin's ambitions and potential need for perpetual war. * The potential for miscalculation and escalation in US-Russia relations, as highlighted by the submarine deployment following Medvedev's warnings. * The "capriciousness" of the US president and the "bombast" of his social media communications. * The uncertainty surrounding the precise level of current US support for Ukraine's war effort. ### Material Financial Data: * No specific financial data or metrics are provided in this editorial.

Donald Trump may finally have the measure of Putin

Read original at The Independent

Donald Trump turned out to be wrong, although it may not be tactful to point it out, because the world still needs him to support Ukraine, however grudgingly. But we told him that Vladimir Putin had no interest in making peace, and so it has proved. President Trump thought he could persuade the Russian leader to cut a deal over Ukraine.

That approach might not have been as misconceived as it sometimes seemed. It might have been possible that a combination of appeasement, flattery and strong-man talk would have worked. But Putin has shown that he is not interested in negotiation. His belief in a Greater Russia, and possibly his need to wage a permanent war in order to maintain his grip on power, means that the bloodshed will continue, and even Mr Trump can see where the blame lies.

It was encouraging, therefore, that Mr Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to avoid enhanced sanctions over the Ukraine war to “10 to 12 days” a few days ago. Mr Trump’s deadlines are notoriously variable, but the president’s meaning was clear. Equally, Mr Trump’s war of words with Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s associate and the former president of Russia, confirms that there is little common ground left between Washington and Moscow.

The social media spat culminated in Mr Trump sending two United States nuclear submarines to patrol “near Russia” – after Medvedev warned the US against being drawn into direct conflict with a nuclear power. Mr Trump should never have threatened to withdraw the US’s support for the Ukrainian people, but we should be grateful that he failed to follow through on that threat, even if the precise level of current US support for Volodymyr Zelensky’s war effort is shrouded in secrecy.

Maybe it was worth trying to do a deal with Putin, although it besmirched the reputation of American democracy that Mr Trump should have subjected Mr Zelensky – a brave leader fighting for his people in a noble cause – to that disgraceful theatrical display in the White House in February. Maybe it was worth Mr Trump rudely waking the peoples of Europe to their responsibility to meet a greater share of the cost of defending their continent.

But it should never have been at the expense of the defence of the right of a free people to resist aggression. The international community bore, and continues to bear, a moral duty to defend democracy, human rights and the right to self-determination. All democracies should stand by the Ukrainian people in their time of need, however long that time shall be.

No one wants the war to continue for a moment longer, but Mr Trump is now as clear as the rest of the world has been that Putin is responsible for prolonging the bloodshed. The war could end today if Putin wanted it to. For all the capriciousness of the US president, and for all the bombast of his social media communications, it seems that Mr Trump understands that Putin, and his proxy Medvedev, must not be appeased.

Sending US nuclear submarines to patrol “near Russia” is a symbolic gesture, but if what it symbolises is an increased willingness on the part of Mr Trump to support Ukraine against Putin’s aggression, then it is to be welcomed.

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