investingLive Americas FX news wrap 13 Aug: Fed officials are cautious but markets are not

Key points:NASDAQ and S&P close at new records. Indices recover from declines in up and down sessionFed's Goolsbee: Need more comfort on inflation, every meeting liveUS government's announcement on farming sector probing tariffs not likely or a few weeksUS crude oil futures settle at $62.65Fed's Bostic: Feel like we have the luxury today to wait to make a policy adjustmentBOC meeting minutes: Agreed on need to wait for more clarity before firm conclusionsFed's Goolsbee Economists unanimous that Fed must be independentEuropean shares rise as hopes for peace and lower impact from tariffs push shares higherTrump: Meeting with EU leaders and Zelenskiy rate it a 10Axios: Pres.

Trump has told EU leaders and Ukraine's Zelenskiy land needs to be given upUK PM Starmer: Have military plans ready that could be used if there is a cease-fireFed Chair candidate Bullard: A 50 bp cut in September sounds panickyUS crude oil inventories +3.036M vs -0.275M estimateFrance Macron: Trump stated intention for a Ukraine cease-fire when he speaks with PutinThe list for Fed Chair expands.

Adding some outsiders including Rick Reider, David ZervosThe USD is lower vs major currencies to start the North American session as sellers pushinvestingLive European markets wrap: Dollar sags, stocks hold firm while Ethereum ralliesUS Bessent: There's good chance of 50 basis point rate cut for the FedThe USD moved lower vs the major currencies in trading today helped by lower US yields and despite some hesitancy on cutting rates from Fed officials.

The chance for a September cut rose to 100% today. For an October cut, it rose to 67.0% and for a December cut rate it is up to 56%.The market is saying one thing. Some Fed officials are telling a different story. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic struck a cautious tone, noting that despite market expectations for a September rate cut, he believes policymakers have the luxury to wait before making an adjustment, as the labor market remains strong.

He acknowledged growing financial stress among low- to moderate-income consumers, with signs that pressure is starting to reach higher-income households, while upper-income consumers remain in relatively good shape. Bostic pointed out that small businesses are under significantly more strain than larger firms and that increased reliance on credit cards suggests potential cracks in consumer strength.

Bostic's Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects 2.5% growth for Q3, with an update due Friday. On inflation, the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price CPI rose 4.6% annualized in July after 4.3% in June, and is up 3.4% year-over-year, highlighting persistent price pressures in slower-moving categories.

I can understand his hesitancy given that data.Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, typically one of the FOMC’s more dovish members, signaled he is not yet convinced about supporting a September rate cut. He stressed that every upcoming meeting will be “live” and that policy decisions will hinge on incoming data.

While the labor market shows mixed signals—some strong, some concerning—he said rate cuts would be warranted if clear deterioration emerged, but he’s unsure that’s the case now. Goolsbee emphasized the need for multiple months of favorable inflation readings before gaining the comfort to ease, noting recent mild inflation but a worrisome uptick in services prices in the latest CPI.

He remains cautious about viewing tariffs as a one-off inflation shock, especially given levies on semiconductors and new tariff announcements. While he acknowledged underlying economic conditions could justify lower rates and that preemptive cuts are possible if inflation is clearly trending toward 2%, he made clear that key data before the September meeting will determine his stance.

Fed officials are not 100%.Nevertheless, yields move lower across the curve:2-year yield 3.678%, -5.2 basis points5 -year yield 3.768%, -5.3 basis points10 year yield 4.238%, -5.5 basis points30 year yield 4.829%, -5.6 basis pointsA look at the USD changes vs the major currencies shows: EUR -0.21%JPY -0.

28%GBP -0.53%CHF -0.11%CAD -0.07%AUD -0.25%NZD -0.29%Stocks are on board for rate cuts as they continued their moved to the upside led by the small-cap Russell 2000 which is up close to 5% over the last two trading days. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closed at new records once again.Dow industrial average +1.

04%.S&P index +0.32%NASDAQ index +0.14%.Russell 2000 +1.98% after yesterday's 2.99% rise.Crude oil continued its move to the downside falling further away from its 100 day moving average at $64.77. The current price is trading at $62.75 down $0.43 from yesterday's trade.Bitcoin rose by $2600 to -$122,729.

Bullish (the company) is a global digital asset platform focused on institutional investors, combining elements of both centralized and decentralized finance. It operates a regulated cryptocurrency exchange, Bullish Exchange, and also owns CoinDesk, a leading digital asset media and data provider. The company aims to provide market infrastructure and information services for institutions engaging with digital assets.

And after searching to $118 then fell sharply to close near session lows at $68.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.